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The WSJ reports that the Obama administration will roll out an expanded program this week to help home owners whose home values are less than their mortgages (excerpts below). Banks that reduce loan balances will have more flexibility in refinancing existing loans into new FHA-insured loans. Hats off to the administration for trying to help, but FHA loans come with mortgage insurance, and the FHA will be increasing that monthly mortgage insurance from .55% to 1.45% effective Monday, October 4.

Let’s say this program allows someone with existing financing of $350,000 at 6.25% with no mortgage insurance to refinance to $300,000 at 4.25% with mortgage insurance. The politicians and press would say this 2% rate improvement and lower loan amount would save $679 per month, which if true, would indeed be enough savings for a borrower who qualified for the refi (under FHA loan approval standards) to keep their home. But it isn’t true. When you factor in the new FHA mortgage insurance rates, the savings is $298, or 56% less savings than projected. Which means less chance that such a change would be a long-term fix. more…

Average Rate Is 6% on $11t In U.S. Mortgage Debt
Yes, rates are still great, even with the little uptick we saw last week. But interestingly, the effective mortgage rate outstanding on all $11 trillion of US household residential mortgage debt remains basically unchanged at 6%. Originators on the front lines know that even though rates are at all-time lows, a huge proportion of households cannot refinance due to credit or value issues. So unlike previous low-rate cycles, when prepayments increased predictably, this time around is different.

Fannie Mae Zero-Down Loan
A new program from Fannie Mae called Affordable Advantage is available to first-time home buyers in Idaho, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and created in conjunction with the states’ housing finance agencies. Proponents say that low down payments themselves were not the problem, except when combined with other risk factors like adjustable rates or lax underwriting. Various state agencies have continued to make loans with low down payments to those who may or may not have the best credit. Affordable Advantage loans are 30-year fixed mortgages, with mandatory homeownership counseling, available to people with credit scores of 680 and above (720 in Massachusetts). The buyers have to put in $1,000 and must live in the homes. more…

Heavyweight economists, politicians, businessmen, and journalists are waterside on Lake Como, Italy this weekend attending the Ambrosetti Forum, an annual conference on world events. So far, economists have espoused doom, especially for the U.S. economy, while the hotel they’re enjoying espouses this on its website: “Experience the splendor, the grandeur, the intrigue and the magic of Villa d’Este–an opulent hotel overlooking glorious Lake Como. Hailed as one of the best hotels in the world by Travel & Leisure, Condé Nast Traveler and Forbes Traveler, this famous resort destination has been widely praised for its beautiful gardens, exquisite cuisine, gala celebrations, impeccable décor and extraordinary hospitality.”

Haven’t seen this kind of juxtaposition since world leaders discussed the global food crisis over an 18 course meal two years ago. Notable Ambrosetti Forum concerns about U.S. and global economies are below: more…

Currently the Dow is up 72 and mortgage bonds are down 47 basis points, bringing rates up by about .125% following the better-than-expected Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report showing 67,000 new private sector jobs in August, positive revisions for July, and 763,000 new private sector jobs in 2010. Commentary and charts below.

The BLS report showed that the economy lost 54,000 non-farm jobs in August which reflects the fact that 114,000 government census workers have now completed their work. Actual new private sector jobs were 67,000 for August and 763,000 for 2010. Estimates called for a loss of 120,000 non-farm payrolls, much more than the actual 54,000 loss, and this disparity is why the market reaction is good for stocks and bad for rates. BLS also reported that 14.9 million people are unemployed. This is a 9.6% unemployment rate, up 4.7% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts and more commentary on the U.S.’s 8.9m involuntary part-timer workers below. more…

How Is Unemployment Calculated?
Here in the US, the unemployment rate is estimated by a household survey called the Current Population Survey, conducted monthly by the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed persons by the size of the workforce. An unemployed person is defined as a person not employed but actively seeking work. The size of the workforce is defined as those employed plus those unemployed.

Largest Employer In U.S.
Who is the largest private employer in the United States? Wal-Mart! 2.1 million of us work there. In the public sector, the US Government employs about 2% of the nation’s workforce. The US Postal Service is the largest civilian employer, with about 600,000 folks. Private sector job growth continues to be the key to a sustainable economic recovery, especially if we expect to see much of an improvement in housing prices. Economists continue to believe the probability of a double-dip recession remains low, but are cautious. Heading into this employment data, most believe that if private sector job creation does not improve (or at least hold-up) in the near term, there will be significant ramifications on the economic horizon ranging from the outcome of the November mid-term elections to the likelihood that the Fed proceeds with an additional dose of quantitative easing. more…

No More MBS Buying From Fed
Rates continue to trend lower, helped yesterday by the release of the FOMC meeting’s minutes which alluded to the possibility of the Fed reinvesting in MBS’s. (But heck, as one trader told me, low mortgage rates are helping agency-qualified borrowers, not others in the economy like renters who can’t qualify, not those that don’t have jobs or those that simply pay cash for houses.) “A few members worried that reinvesting principal from agency debt and MBS in Treasury securities could send an inappropriate signal to investors about the Committee’s readiness to resume large-scale asset purchases,” the Fed said in the report, referring to mortgage-backed securities. The minutes from the August 10 meeting made it clear that the Fed is far from ready to restart Quantitative Easing Round 2.

FDIC Banks Report $22b Aggregate Profit
“It’s hard to make a comeback when you haven’t been anywhere.” Conversely, banks have certainly made a comeback: FDIC-insured institutions reported an aggregate profit of almost $22 billion in the second quarter of 2010, a $26 billion improvement from the $4 billion net loss the industry posted in the second quarter of 2009. This is the highest quarterly earnings total since the third quarter of 2007. Earnings remain low, however; the primary factor contributing to the year-over-year improvement in quarterly earnings was a reduction in provisions for loan losses. more…

In July Fannie Mae issued over $42 billion in new mortgage backed securities, up 6.4% from June, and the highest level of MBS issuance since February. Freddie, however, dropped slightly from June to July at about $26 billion, possibly due to a drop in the purchase of refi’s. Fannie reported that the serious delinquency rate (90 days or later) on its guaranteed single-family mortgages was down for the 4th month in a row, and fell below 5% for the first time since October 2009. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate on its guaranteed single-family mortgages fell once again, remaining below 4% for the second consecutive month.

The S&P Case Shiller June 2010 report of existing home sales showed year-over-year 4.2% price gains averaged across 20 major metropolitan areas. In June, 17 of the 20 metro areas covered by the index were up. However S&P noted that this reporting period was during the peak of activity corresponding to federal homebuyer tax credit deadlines, so data after this might look more like the record low new and existing home sales for July that we saw last week. Full text of press release below.

Case Shiller June 2010 Home Price Index

Here’s some dark Monday humor as we head into a week that’s likely to confirm dropping home prices and rising job losses. Andy Samberg’s cocaine-addled character sings about how it’s going to be a great dayyyyyyy … as long as he gets plenty of stimulus. If the U.S. economy was a person, it might very well be this man.

Rates are down this morning on continued fears of a double dip recession and the latest inflation report confirming tame prices. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in June and 1.5% year-over-year through June. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was 0.1% for June and 1.4% YOY through June. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. At 1.4%, Core inflation is within their comfort zone, and PCE inflation has been stable for a year. Mortgage bonds are rallying once again to record levels, which pushes rates down to new record lows.

Personal income was up 0.2% in July, which is the same range of the last 6 months. Wages rose 0.3%, which is roughly the same monthly level for all of 2010. The household savings rate was 5.9%, which is down from the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report. You can automatically create charts and download historical PCE data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.