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Possible Bad Outcomes Of Fed Policy
We began the year believing that rates were heading higher, with the Fed “tightening” and making credit costs higher – but this tightening cycle will be different. There are two policy decisions for the FOMC to make, the first being increasing short term rates, but also having to deal with its asset holdings (all those securities it owns). Obviously some mortgages pay off, but the Fed doesn’t necessarily want to own mortgage-backed securities or agency debt until their maturity in 30 years – they prefer Treasury securities. Watch for selling to start this summer – which could lead to mortgage spreads increasing. One scenario I’d read about stated that if the Fed chooses to leave $1 trillion of 4.5% mortgages on its books as it starts to raise rates, and inflation really picks up, the Fed could find itself paying out 10% or more as interest on excess reserves and receiving only 4.5% on the assets. This, in turn, would lead to $55 billion of annual losses (and $300 billion in mark-to-market losses) will set them up as a politically weak inflation fighting central bank.

How Are Rate Lock Periods Determined?
How are rate lock periods determined? Companies certainly don’t want to run up against GFE and RESPA issues, for one thing, in setting deadlines. On the investor side, for brokers, Wells Fargo reminded them that “We’re serious about closing purchase deals on time!” Wells will “provide an initial decision within two business days of receipt of the complete file for all first mortgage purchase loans. If you submit your loan with a Wells Fargo Home Equity Line of Credit product, it will also be decisioned within two business days of the first mortgage approval. We can meet the closing date if the loan has been locked and all prior to close conditions (including all pre-close documents) are received at least 10 business days prior to the closing date.” Wells doesn’t outright tell brokers that it will close a loan within whatever lock period the broker sets, but it is almost the other way around. Wells goes on to tell brokers what pre-close documents are needed, how many days ahead of closing brokers should submit a complete file (20 business days), etc. more…

Often I start the commentary off saying something witty, but I couldn’t think of anything clever so I thought I’d suggest you take a look at this video about seat belts (also embedded below). It is making the rounds, and with good reason.

Why Rates Won’t Rise On March 31
The Federal Reserve has a little more than ten business days to complete their well-publicized purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Last week it bought $10 billion, breaking their 3-week streak of $11 billion. Only fixed-rate agency MBS securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are/were eligible assets for the program. Everyone knows that the end of the program is imminent. more…

Rates Up This Morning, Slow Economic Week
Last week rates were moved around by economic data. By Friday rates had improved slightly, and locks appeared to be picking up a little, but then a better-than-expected employment number pushed them higher. Fortunately for mortgage rates, the spread between them and the 10-yr Treasury (still a benchmark, in spite of actual rates more closely tracking 5-yr and 7-yr notes) is the lowest it has ever been. This week won’t have as much to chew on: the Trade Balance & Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, and Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Business Inventories come out Friday. And on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday the US Government will be selling securities to finance its activities: $74 billion broken down by $40 billion in three-year notes, $21 billion in 10-year notes and $13 billion in 30-year bonds. Ahead of this the 10-yr yield is up to 3.72% and mortgage prices are worse by between .125 and .250 in price.

Four More Banks Fail
When I was a kid, I used to pray every night for a new bike. Then I realized that God doesn’t work that way. So instead I stole a bike and asked Him to forgive me. Neither strategy worked for four more banks, as the FDIC shut them down Friday (without finding buyers for two of them leading to losses for depositors who had balances exceeding the agency’s insurance limits). Sun American’s (FL) deposits and assets were acquired by First-Citizens Bank (NC) at a cost to the FDIC of $103 million. The Bank of Illinois was “absorbed” by Heartland Bank (IL) at a cost to the FDIC of about $54 million. Waterfield Bank (MD), at a cost to the FDIC $51 million, and Utah’s Centennial Bank are now being run by the FDIC, with the help of Zion’s Bank, at a cost of about $96 million. more…

Update on State & National Mortgage Licensing
The SAFE Act continues to weigh on some agents’ minds. Different states have different interpretations. In general, the SAFE Act requires all mortgage loan officer license applicants to complete 20 hours of pre-license education, including three hours of federal law and regulations, three hours of ethics, including fraud, consumer protection, and fair lending issues, and two hours of training related to lending standards for the nontraditional mortgage product marketplace. Here in California, “Approval has been granted for individuals who are currently licensed by DRE to obtain certification that the pre-license education requirement has been satisfied based on the education completed to obtain their DRE license. However, to be eligible for this process, licensees must file Form MU 4 by August 31, 2010.” There are a few other things to keep in mind, but this appears to be some good news. Here’s the California site.

Thornburg’s Last (and Next) Chapter
In a story out of Reuters, four top executives of Thornburg Mortgage improperly paid themselves handsome bonuses just before the mortgage lender filed for bankruptcy last year, and stole money and ideas from Thornburg to secretly launch a new firm, the bankruptcy trustee in charge of liquidating the lender alleged in a lawsuit. Per the complaint, the four executives and their outside lawyer and law firm conspired to launch a new company, called SAF Financial, using a strategy created by Thornburg to try to save itself. CEO Larry Goldstone, former CFO Clarence Simmons, and former VP’s Deborah Burns and Amy Pell were mentioned. more…

An Underwriter Explains Why Are Loans So Hard To Approve
Lately I have been hearing from producers, some of whom are upset about the current lending environment, some not. But for a slightly different view of things, here is what one very experienced and knowledgeable underwriter wrote to me. This is worth the read even for consumers who wonder why their loans are so hard to do:

“It used to be that we could ‘underwrite’ a loan and use common sense to navigate individual circumstances and actually make a decision that a loan was a good credit risk. Then DU and LP [Fannie and Freddie's automated underwriting engines] came along and gave us the laundry list that had to be followed. We were still able to manually underwrite loans for those transactions that did not fit the box. Then the bottom fell out of the business and everyone got scared and new rules came out. Investors and Wall Street were to blame for allowing individuals who were not telling the truth to buy homes. Today investors are pre-underwriting loans prior to purchase and we have to ‘march to their tune’ including getting pieces of paper that seem ridiculous, but since we need the investor to purchase the loan so we obtain them anyway. Only the most qualified borrowers with all their ducks in a row get loans these days. Manually underwritten loans are subject to scrutiny such as we have never seen before and frankly, we do not have the courage to paint outside of the lines because we cannot afford to have a loan purchase refused. Today, it takes two to three times as long to underwrite a loan and we have checklist upon checklist that help us make sure all of the i’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed. I have been doing this for over 30 years and frankly we are back to the rules of the early 80’s or worse when it comes to documentation.” more…

Market Reaction To Greece’s Plans, ADP Shows 20k Jobs Lost
Greece announced a well-publicized $5.4 billion plan to cut its deficit (3rd one in 3 months), which of course has their workers protesting. Taking a longer term view, these measures should help the country. Depending on the news from Greece, money either flows in to or out of our Treasury market with the “safe haven, flight to quality” attitude. Greece cutting its massive budget deficit by 4% is obviously a help. (10-yr Notes in Greece yield about 6 %.) ADP showed February private sector jobs declining 20,000, with a back-month revision. Later this morning we’ll see some ISM numbers, and the Beige Book, but overnight (and for now) the rate markets are pretty quiet with the 10-yr sitting around 3.63% and mortgages slightly better given some intra-day price improvements yesterday.

Foreign Investment … In Detroit
Foreign intrigue is always interesting (check today’s joke at the bottom) as is a foreign report (in this case, British) on property values in Detroit. $1 for a house sounds tempting. more…

Putin’s Russian Mortgage Stimulus
Any weapons race with Russia doesn’t receive the publicity it did 30 years ago. But whatever you call someone who originates loans in Russia (brokers?) received some good news last week, when Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that the government will help to lower the mortgage rates investing more than $8.3 billion. The government will provide this money to the banks thus substantially subsidizing the current mortgage rates, which are currently at 14-15% in Russia. Putin set a target rate at 11% with a maximum down payment of 20%.

Is Jumbo Mortgage Comeback for Real?
Do folks here in the US and in the mortgage business have any good news to cheer about, besides rates not being 11%? Some are dealing with the changes in FHA lending and the effect on condominiums. The markets, and interest rates, are facing the end of the Treasury’s purchases of mortgage backed securities and the end of the first time homebuyer tax credit ($8000). The economy does not appear to be rebounding enough to generate much home buying interest, the unemployment rate is hovering around 10%, and foreclosure filings not yet abating. more…

What Economic Stats Are Doing To Rates
Are we heading for lower rates, or higher rates? Certainly there is no inflationary pressure, although GDP for the fourth quarter (generally thought of as “old news”) was revised slightly higher, and was the strongest quarter of economic growth in more than six years. But Existing Home Sales decreased over 7% in January and was much weaker than expected. At over 3 million units available for sale, at the current pace this is almost an eight month supply. And for the sales in January, 38% were “distressed” sales which include foreclosures. (Maybe we’ll get another tax related surge in the coming months based on the April 30th date, maybe not.)

Also on Friday we had the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index show a little increase in February, but the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping slightly from January’s levels. But how do Purchasing Managers stack up against news from Greece, or the level of foreign interest in buying our debt? They don’t. The threat of ratings cuts for Greece fueled demand for the safety of U.S. debt and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke pledged to hold interest rates at a record low – so don’t look for (short term) rates moving much higher. But continued faith in U.S. economy could fade quickly without signs that Congress is crafting plans to address the very large deficit in which we find ourselves – Bernanke believes that deficits need to be brought down to 2.5% to 3% of the nation’s gross domestic product to be sustainable. more…

Mortgage Markets After March 31
For the week that just ended for the Fed, their MBS purchases totaled $17.6 billion, and they sold $6.6 billion, netting out that magical $11 billion weekly total. They are right on target to end this in about a month. After March 31st, the program ceases. People will still buy homes, mortgages will continue to be originated, but will some of the dire production predictions come true? Everyone in the business is hoping not, but the large investors would prefer not to wait to find out. Big investors have cut profit margins and prices, resulting in some very good (relatively speaking) mortgage rates for borrowers. Investors, account executives, production managers may be already worried that they won’t hit their numbers for the year, and appear to be doing what they can to move a little ahead of the pack prior during the first quarter. Because after March 31st, it’s anyone’s ball game. And keep in mind that any loans that fund and are placed into securities settling in March had better close sooner than later due to lag times. Make hay while the sun shines.

Should Foreclosures Be Run By Government?
Should foreclosures be run by the government? Lordy lordy… the Obama administration may expand efforts to ease the housing crisis by banning all foreclosures on home loans unless they have been screened and rejected by the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program. Bloomberg reported that the proposal was reviewed by lenders last week on a White House conference call, “prohibits referral to foreclosure until borrower is evaluated and found ineligible for HAMP or reasonable contact efforts have failed,” according to a Treasury Department document outlining the plan. At present, lenders can initiate foreclosure proceedings on any loan that hasn’t been submitted for HAMP eligibility. Under current HAMP rules, foreclosure litigation can proceed while borrowers are under review for the program or even in a trial modification. The proposed changes would prohibit lenders from initiating new foreclosure actions before loan screening by HAMP and would require lenders to halt existing proceedings for borrowers once they are in a trial repayment plan. more…

Treasury Auctions Weigh on Markets
Yesterday’s $42 billion 5-yr auction did not go well. It goes back to the “What if we held an auction and nobody bid?” Indirect bids, which in the past indicated a level of interest from foreign entities but in the last year became a little convoluted, have been on a roller coaster: Tuesday’s 2-yr hit over 53% of the auction while yesterday’s was the lowest since July at 40%. Not good. The Bernanke testimony (rates need to remain low), along with the much worse-than-expected New Homes Sales data, muddled the picture somewhat for investors yesterday. The good news for mortgage folks is that dealers are reporting heavy selling, and selling is often powered by locks, so current locks must be picking up.

New Home Sales Down 11%
The New Home Sales data was particularly bad. In January sales dropped 11%, the worst on record and erasing all the gains from last year. Nationwide, inventory represents over a 9 month supply – the highest in almost a year. And year-over-year the median price for a new home fell in January by 2.4%, to $203,500 from $208,600 a year ago. Regionally, January new-home sales dropped 35.1% in the Northeast, 11.9% in the West, and 9.5% in the South. Sales rose 2.1% in the Midwest. more…