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No More MBS Buying From Fed
Rates continue to trend lower, helped yesterday by the release of the FOMC meeting’s minutes which alluded to the possibility of the Fed reinvesting in MBS’s. (But heck, as one trader told me, low mortgage rates are helping agency-qualified borrowers, not others in the economy like renters who can’t qualify, not those that don’t have jobs or those that simply pay cash for houses.) “A few members worried that reinvesting principal from agency debt and MBS in Treasury securities could send an inappropriate signal to investors about the Committee’s readiness to resume large-scale asset purchases,” the Fed said in the report, referring to mortgage-backed securities. The minutes from the August 10 meeting made it clear that the Fed is far from ready to restart Quantitative Easing Round 2.

FDIC Banks Report $22b Aggregate Profit
“It’s hard to make a comeback when you haven’t been anywhere.” Conversely, banks have certainly made a comeback: FDIC-insured institutions reported an aggregate profit of almost $22 billion in the second quarter of 2010, a $26 billion improvement from the $4 billion net loss the industry posted in the second quarter of 2009. This is the highest quarterly earnings total since the third quarter of 2007. Earnings remain low, however; the primary factor contributing to the year-over-year improvement in quarterly earnings was a reduction in provisions for loan losses. more…

Why Banks Aren’t Lending More
Why aren’t large depository banks loosening their credit guidelines and lending more money? Market watchers suggest that one reason is the buy-back issue: FNMA & FHLMC have sizable losses on bad loans and are considering forcing eleven large lenders (the biggest being BofA and Chase) to buy back loans which would result in losses of over $100 billion. Not only are banks grappling with that potential issue, but there may also be a lack of confidence in the health of our economy banks, businesses, and consumers. No one wants to borrow money to buy a house or expand their business if they aren’t confident about their job or more optimistic about the economy. And right now, as there often is, investors can’t seem to decide if the bond market (which is pointing toward further weakness) or the stock market (pointing toward stability and moderate growth) is more correct about predicting the future health of the US economy.

Is There A Bond Bubble & Are Rates Set To Spike?
Rates have an inverse relationship with fixed-income prices, meaning that when bond prices go up, rates go down. With the major drop in rates in the last several months comes talk of a “bond market bubble”. Most economists do not feel that we’re in a bond market bubble where there is a disconnect between prices and fundamental reality, but it is still worth talking about. All bubbles follow a common pattern, whether it concerns high-tech stocks, tulip bulbs, or real estate. Initially prices increase when a new opportunity presents itself with the prospect of good returns. Investors become more optimistic and lenders become less risk-averse. Suddenly everyone is chasing prices regardless of fundamental values, expectations become unrealistic, and speculators who are more concerned with short term gains rather than long term returns flood the market. But clearer minds begin to prevail, and insiders start to sell. Asset prices stop rising, panic sets in, and investors rush to unload positions before the next guy, and prices crash. more…

Turns out this ‘grassroots’ Elizabeth Warren rap video that made the rounds last week was produced by Hollywood bigwig composer Hans Zimmer, the music man behind many of the biggest movies of the past 25 years … from Rain Man to Gladiator to Pirates of the Caribbean to the latest Batman movies and Inception. NYT reports that the rapper in the video is a TV salesman at Best Buy. The video was passable as a grassroots effort, but if it’s being graded in the we’re-pros-but-it’s-supposed-to-suck Andy Samberg sense, then it fails. Warren is Obama’s top pick to head the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, a new office created by the massive Dodd/Frank financial reform bill. Thanks to Sugarleg who sent us video in first place.

Rates Lower Still
Mortgage prices rising (agency MBS’s, not non-agency stuff). Not only are all rates dropping, but the spread between Treasury and MBS’s is still fairly tight – further helping mortgages. The demand for agency MBS cash flows is strong, but the primary market can’t churn out enough supply. Investors know that, on average, current mortgages have sparkling credit quality, and that the risk of investing in them is minimal since both Treasury and mortgage securities are firmly backed by the same entity: the US Government. Whatever spread now exists is based not so much on fear of default, but more fear of early pay-off.

Thursday saw a lot of selling in agency MBS’s, but on Friday it dropped off a cliff, nearing $1.2 billion. Regardless, rates continue down. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield fell to a fresh 16-month low in Europe today with weakness in Japan and in equity markets stimulating demand for U.S. government debt – we’re down to a yield of 2.62% (weren’t we just around 3%?) and mortgages are better between .125 and .250 in price this morning. Overall it’s a pretty decent news week. Today is the Empire State manufacturing index; tomorrow will be a bigger day with Housing Starts & Building Permits, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, and the Producer Price Index. Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will be released on Thursday. more…

A few days ago the FDIC announced the creation of a new office to help implement ‘Too Big To Fail’ provisions of the 2300 page Dodd-Frank Finreg bill: The Office of Complex Financial Institutions. Seems redundant—isn’t the root of their job to oversee a complex system? Even if the office is focused on understanding firms above a certain size (described in press release below), this name misses their goal of simplification.

The FDIC Board of Directors today approved the creation of a new Office of Complex Financial Institutions (CFI) and Division of Depositor and Consumer Protection (DCP) to help carry out its responsibilities under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. more…

About 15 months ago actor Kal Penn joined the White House Office of Public Engagement, and 2 months ago he returned to Hollywood to make a third installment of the “Harold & Kumar” cult-favorite stoner movie series. In the last installment of the movie, Penn’s character Kumar smoked a joint with George W. Bush. And below is the last installment of Penn’s White House duties: a financial reform consumer ‘education’ video voiced by Penn … which raises the question: Is the Obama administration high? Politicians brag about how smart our country is, but this is what they really think about The American People’s ability to understand market basics.

The FDIC has closed 96 banks so far in 2010, including 6 on Friday. Here’s the FDIC Failed Bank List which shows which banks failed outright, depleting bank-funded FDIC reserves, and which were fully or partially taken over by other banks. When WAMU became the biggest-ever bank failure in the heat of the crisis, the FDIC realized their fund would disappear quickly so they and other bank regulators have become investment bankers of sorts, brokering deals for healthy banks to take over assets (loans) and/or deposits of the failing banks—in that case, the FDIC let JP Morgan Chase take over WAMU for a mere $2b. The Failed Bank List details all of these deals. For healthy banks, this is a golden era to cherry pick healthy loan books and/or pre-existing branch networks at deep discounts.

For those who don’t truly know what’s going on with financial reform, we offer this simple analogy using beloved movie The Hangover. While the market has been shaking off its post credit boom hangover with a new credit boom (hair of the dog is the best cure, right?), Senator Chris Dodd drafted financial reform legislation to make sure markets don’t forget what caused the hangover. His bill, after being fudged up with hundreds of amendments, passed the Senate today and now it’s onto Obama to become many new laws. Plenty more to come as the unintended consequences of the bill play out in the coming months and years. But for now this is our Hangover tribute to Chris Dodd who, like Alan (played by Zach Galifianakis), is simply trying to bring structure to the chaotic rituals of crazed men.

Below is the ‘One Man Wolf Pack’ speech Alan gives on Caesar’s Palace rooftop before the forgotten period. All you have to do is change “Sin City” to Washington DC, “Doug” to Barney Frank, “you guys” to the rest of the Democrats, “Las Vegas” to America, and “strippers and cocaine” to greedy bankers and fed-up voters. Then darkness falls on Dodd’s day. Cue the cash-soaked angst of Kanye’s Can’t Tell Me Nothing (aka When I Get My Money Right). Media gums flap about toothless reform in mornings to come, yet haggard consumers and lobby-less banks get attacked by the proverbial naked crowbar swinging psychos hidden in the trunks (aka amendments) of this bill. Cheers. Now let the mayhem begin. more…

Clever Chase Business Loan Promo
There are some pretty creative folks out there, even in banking. Every once in a while someone will suggest a reward to residential borrowers for making their payment, instead of (what some would say) a reward for not making their payments. In some news out yesterday, Chase announced an incentive that rewards small businesses for each new employee they hire this year. The bank will lower its interest rate on a new Chase Business Line of Credit by 0.5 percentage point for each new hire, up to three, for the life of the loan. It is not a huge amount, but nonetheless helps.

Jan-June Mortgage Securities Volume Of $217.6b Double 2009
We’re halfway done with 2010, and companies are wondering if the dire volume and profit predictions that started off 2010 are going to come true or not. I will opine here and say that given that mortgage employment is thought to be down about 50% from 2008, anyone still in the business should pat themselves on the shoulder. And any company making money and expanding should do the same. U.S. mortgage-backed securities issuance jumped in the first six months of 2010 from the same period a year earlier. Thomson Reuters said U.S. mortgage-backed securities issuance totaled $217.6 billion in the first half of 2010, nearly double the $112.5 billion total in the same period a year earlier. Bank of America was the top underwriter with a 26% market share. Barclays was #2 with about an 11% share, and Goldman Sachs was #3 with a 9.5% share. The survey does not monitor loan production, nor IO or principal-only securities, but instead looks at mortgage bonds backed by whole commercial and residential real estate loans as well as the mortgage-backed securities initially packaged by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. more…

Short Sales Take 6-13 Months
A study put out by Deutsche Bank ranked GMAC ranked as the top servicer among all prime mortgage servicers based on short sale timelines – six months! The investment bank’s survey showed that a short sale generated a higher recovery than an REO sale. For “prime” short sales, GMAC was the fastest, followed by CitiMortgage (7.5 months) and Wells (8 months). DB’s study showed that BofA was the slowest with a 13 month short sale timeline. For “subprime” Wells came in first (15 months), followed by HomEq and then Saxon. Option ARM short sale speedsters were EMC, Aurora, and GMAC.

Can Foreclosed Borrowers Get New Loans?
Fannie Mae issued a bulletin on Underwriting Borrowers with a Prior Foreclosure, to modify the waiting period that must elapse before a borrower is eligible for a new mortgage loan after a foreclosure. Originally a seven-year waiting period after a prior foreclosure will apply for all borrowers, unless the foreclosure was the result of documented extenuating circumstances, which requires a three-year waiting period with additional eligibility requirements. Fannie also includes a maximum LTV ratio of the lesser of 90% or the LTV ratio per the Eligibility Matrix for all transactions – best to check their grid. more…