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The S&P Case Shiller June 2010 report of existing home sales showed year-over-year 4.2% price gains averaged across 20 major metropolitan areas. In June, 17 of the 20 metro areas covered by the index were up. However S&P noted that this reporting period was during the peak of activity corresponding to federal homebuyer tax credit deadlines, so data after this might look more like the record low new and existing home sales for July that we saw last week. Full text of press release below.

Case Shiller June 2010 Home Price Index

Jumpy Rate Market Response To GDP & Home Sales Reports
Rates dropped 0.2% early last week then rose Friday to end the week even. The $109b in Treasury auctions throughout last week caused mortgage bonds to sell off slightly, and July’s record low New Home Sales (down 32.4% year-over-year) and Existing Home Sales (down 25.5% year-over-year) helped mortgages rally— rates rise on bond selloffs and drop on rallies. But then two factors caused a huge 59 basis point selloff Friday:

(1) The second of three 2Q2010 GDP readings showed the economy grew at 1.6% versus expectations of 1.4%. This was a big drop from both the first 2Q reading of 2.4% and the final 1Q reading of 3.7%. Normally economic weakness of this magnitude would cause a mortgage bond rally, bringing rates down. But the opposite happened because traders didn’t think the 1.6% number was weak enough. more…

This post debunking the myth of deleveraging in the U.S. economy was on ZeroHedge yesterday and was written by Jim Quinn of TheBurningPlatform.com. It’s a must-read for anyone who’d like to test the credibility of financial chatter on TV. Here’s a couple of excerpts and two key charts, and go read the full story for some great commentary on mainstream financial media:

Below is a chart that shows total credit market debt as a % of GDP. This chart captures all of the debt in the United States carried by households, corporations, and the government. The data can be found here. During the Great Depression of the 1930′s Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP peaked at 260% of GDP. As of today, it stands at 360% of GDP. The Federal Government is adding $4 billion per day to the National Debt. GDP is stagnant and will likely not grow for the next year. The storyline about corporate America being flush with cash is another lie. Corporations have ADDED $482 billion of debt since 2007. Corporate America has the largest amount of debt on their books in history at $7.2 trillion. more…

Thomas Hoenig is a voting FOMC member who’s voted against keeping rates low at every Fed meeting in 2010. He gave a speech today providing his rationale for why he thinks U.S. monetary policy is too accommodative. The full speech is below—fairly dismal but all good points. His basic premise is that using loose monetary policy as an economic panacea will just repeat the recessionary cycle.

Hard Choices
Speech By Thomas M. Hoenig, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President
Lincoln, Nebraska August 13, 2010 more…

Mortgage bonds closed up 19 basis points today following a Fed meeting where they kept their low rate stance. Mortgage lender rate sheets didn’t decrease commensurately as lenders held the line ahead of a 10yr Treasury note auction Wednesday and a 30yr T-Bond auction Thursday. Lenders do this because longer-dated Treasury auctions compete with mortgage bonds for buying attention, and can cause mortgage bonds to sell off which pushes rates higher. More on today’s FOMC meeting below.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the overnight bank-to-bank Fed Funds Rate steady at 0-0.25% and the overnight Fed-to-bank discount rate at .75%, citing subdued inflation that’s likely to continue for “some time.” For the fifth straight meeting in 2010, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig dissented on the belief that modest rate hikes now (in the form of overnight rate hikes and/or Fed selling of their massive mortgage bond portfolio) could avoid having to sharply increase rates later. The FOMC also said it wouldn’t start selling the $1.25t of mortgage bonds they purchased from January 2009 to March 2010, and they’d reinvest principal payments received on these holdings into Treasury securities—not selling mortgage bonds and buying more Treasuries with profits keeps yields (or rates) on mortgages and Treasuries low. more…

The Fed’s June 22-23 meeting minutes were released today. Below are key excerpts about economic outlook, which is for a slow recovery. Mortgage bonds have rallied since this came out, and rates are down.

Staff Economic Outlook
In the economic forecast prepared for the June FOMC meeting, the staff continued to anticipate a moderate recovery in economic activity through 2011, supported by accommodative monetary policy, an attenuation of financial stress, and strengthening consumer and business confidence. While the recent data on production and spending were broadly in line with the staff’s expectations, the pace of the expansion over the next year and a half was expected to be somewhat slower than previously predicted. The intensifying concerns among investors about the implications of the fiscal difficulties faced by some European countries contributed to an increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar and a drop in equity prices, which seemed likely to damp somewhat the expansion of domestic demand. The implications of these less-favorable factors for U.S. economic activity appeared likely to be only partly offset by lower interest rates on Treasury securities, other highly rated securities, and mortgages, as well as by a lower price for crude oil. The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack, although the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection. more…

Rates have dropped to new record lows twice in the last month, with the most recent record rate lows coming between June 23 and July 1. And despite the June jobs report today showing the biggest monthly job losses in 2010, rates couldn’t break any lower. The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 125,000 jobs in June which includes a 225,000 reduction in the Census workforce (which count as full-time jobs on BLS rolls despite their temporary status). But 83,000 new private sector jobs were created, and this somewhat positive figure is a big reason rates didn’t drop further today—the other big reason is that mortgage bonds are trading at overpriced levels and it seems improbably they’d rally any higher (which would bring rates lower). The net job loss toll since the recession began in December 2007 at 7.48 million, but 2010 shows a net job gain of 882,000. BLS also reported that 14.6 million people are unemployed. This is a 9.5% unemployment rate, up 4.6% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts and additional commentary on the U.S.’s 8.6m involuntary part-timer workers below.

Additionally there are now 8.6 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 3.7m million since January 2008, and while it has improved in the last two months, it’s a volatile number. It decreased 900k in January (at the time, it was the first decrease in nine months), then increased by 800k in the two months before April, was flat in April, and decreased by 525k in May and June. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 8.6 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 8.6 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. This poor statistic in the jobs report is mostly unreported and trading decisions don’t seem to be made on this figure. But until there’s movement here, a sustained recovery seems hard to achieve.
CHART 1: MONTHLY JOB GAIN/LOSS DECEMBER 2007 TO JUNE 2010

The S&P Case Shiller April 2010 report of existing home sales showed year-over-year 3.8% price gains averaged across 20 major metropolitan areas, which brings prices back to the same level they were in late-summer 2003. S&P cited the homebuyer tax credit (which homebuyers had to be in contract by April 30 to be eligible for) as a reason for recent strength, but cautioned that sharp declines in Existing and New Home Sales—the May reports for each were last week and showed big post-tax-credit drops—could mean that “consistent and sustained boosts to economic growth from housing may have to wait to next year.” Notable and consistent gains are as follows: Dallas, Denver, San Diego and San Francisco have all posted six consecutive months of positive annual rates of return, recording +3.3%, +4.4%, +11.7% and +18.0% in April, respectively.
Case Shiller April 2010 Home Price Index

The index tracks existing single family homes, and is a credible pricing barometer for broad market analysis because it excludes condos and new construction. Condos can have more volatile pricing, and new construction pricing can be artificially set by builders, especially in times of distress when discounts an incentives can skew pricing. S&P refers to 10 and 20 “City” Composites, but these are actually metropolitan regional areas, not just cities. For example, where the city says San Francisco, this isn’t just San Francisco, but rather the entire 9 county Bay Area region. more…

The third of three 1Q2010 GDP readings came in today at 2.7% which makes the final reading .5% lower than the initial reading, and it’s now even more significantly lower than 4Q’s +5.6% reading. Stocks lost ground and mortgage bonds rallied on the news, which helped mortgage rates hold onto record lows. The consumer spending component of GDP was 3%, also down .5% from previous readings, but is still above the +1.6% in 4Q. With this final 1Q10 number, we’ve now had three consecutive quarters of GDP growth—following four consecutive quarters of economic contraction (a 60yr record for consecutive GDP declines). As for the consumer spending component of GDP, we’ll get another read on that Monday when the Personal Income & Outlays report is released. All GDP figures are ‘real’ or inflation-adjusted. The last 10 quarters of GDP are at the bottom of this post, and you can also visit our Data section to see historical GDP figures, graphs and download data.

As of November 25, 2008, -0.5% GDP was the largest quarterly decline since the tail end of the last recession in 2001. Six days after that release, the NBER declared a recession had been in effect since December 2007 and also countered the popular definition of recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, saying that they evaluate many factors in addition to GDP. This falls well in line with the beginning of the credit crunch in August 2007 and the multi-layered factors that have led to the recession that’s lasted 2.5 years. Recession beginnings and endings are always officially called after the fact, and while 4Q09 and 1Q10 GDP suggest a recovery, 9.7% unemployment suggests otherwise. Here is the press release for today’s figures, and below are all quarterly GDP readings for the last 2.5 years. more…

The Federal Open Market Committee voted today to keep the overnight bank-to-bank Fed Funds Rate steady at 0-0.25% and the overnight Fed-to-bank discount rate at .75%, citing subdued inflation that’s likely to continue for “some time.” For the fourth straight meeting in 2010, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig dissented on the belief that modest rate hikes now could avoid having to sharply increase rates later. There was no explicit mention of how they’ll handle their $1.25t of mortgage bonds purchased from January 2009 to March 2010, but the minutes from this meeting (that will be released in a few weeks) will likely reveal that they won’t sell mortgage bonds until after some overnight rate hikes.

Selling mortgage bonds has a much more direct upward impact on mortgage rates whereas the overnight rate hikes would indirectly influence mortgage rates. So the minutes from this meeting will most likely reveal that they will hike overnight rates first (when they determine inflation is a potential issue), then sell mortgage bonds as the economic recovery demonstrates it’s self-sustaining. Until then we can expect more mortgage rate volatility as markets trade on every little sign that we may (or may not) be moving out of a low inflation (or deflationary) era, and we can expect that volatility to continue despite Fed decisions. More below on debate about whether Bernanke’s Fed is leaving rates too low for too long. more…