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Rates Up This Morning, Slow Economic Week
Last week rates were moved around by economic data. By Friday rates had improved slightly, and locks appeared to be picking up a little, but then a better-than-expected employment number pushed them higher. Fortunately for mortgage rates, the spread between them and the 10-yr Treasury (still a benchmark, in spite of actual rates more closely tracking 5-yr and 7-yr notes) is the lowest it has ever been. This week won’t have as much to chew on: the Trade Balance & Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, and Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Business Inventories come out Friday. And on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday the US Government will be selling securities to finance its activities: $74 billion broken down by $40 billion in three-year notes, $21 billion in 10-year notes and $13 billion in 30-year bonds. Ahead of this the 10-yr yield is up to 3.72% and mortgage prices are worse by between .125 and .250 in price.

Four More Banks Fail
When I was a kid, I used to pray every night for a new bike. Then I realized that God doesn’t work that way. So instead I stole a bike and asked Him to forgive me. Neither strategy worked for four more banks, as the FDIC shut them down Friday (without finding buyers for two of them leading to losses for depositors who had balances exceeding the agency’s insurance limits). Sun American’s (FL) deposits and assets were acquired by First-Citizens Bank (NC) at a cost to the FDIC of $103 million. The Bank of Illinois was “absorbed” by Heartland Bank (IL) at a cost to the FDIC of about $54 million. Waterfield Bank (MD), at a cost to the FDIC $51 million, and Utah’s Centennial Bank are now being run by the FDIC, with the help of Zion’s Bank, at a cost of about $96 million. more…

Update on State & National Mortgage Licensing
The SAFE Act continues to weigh on some agents’ minds. Different states have different interpretations. In general, the SAFE Act requires all mortgage loan officer license applicants to complete 20 hours of pre-license education, including three hours of federal law and regulations, three hours of ethics, including fraud, consumer protection, and fair lending issues, and two hours of training related to lending standards for the nontraditional mortgage product marketplace. Here in California, “Approval has been granted for individuals who are currently licensed by DRE to obtain certification that the pre-license education requirement has been satisfied based on the education completed to obtain their DRE license. However, to be eligible for this process, licensees must file Form MU 4 by August 31, 2010.” There are a few other things to keep in mind, but this appears to be some good news. Here’s the California site.

Thornburg’s Last (and Next) Chapter
In a story out of Reuters, four top executives of Thornburg Mortgage improperly paid themselves handsome bonuses just before the mortgage lender filed for bankruptcy last year, and stole money and ideas from Thornburg to secretly launch a new firm, the bankruptcy trustee in charge of liquidating the lender alleged in a lawsuit. Per the complaint, the four executives and their outside lawyer and law firm conspired to launch a new company, called SAF Financial, using a strategy created by Thornburg to try to save itself. CEO Larry Goldstone, former CFO Clarence Simmons, and former VP’s Deborah Burns and Amy Pell were mentioned. more…

An Underwriter Explains Why Are Loans So Hard To Approve
Lately I have been hearing from producers, some of whom are upset about the current lending environment, some not. But for a slightly different view of things, here is what one very experienced and knowledgeable underwriter wrote to me. This is worth the read even for consumers who wonder why their loans are so hard to do:

“It used to be that we could ‘underwrite’ a loan and use common sense to navigate individual circumstances and actually make a decision that a loan was a good credit risk. Then DU and LP [Fannie and Freddie's automated underwriting engines] came along and gave us the laundry list that had to be followed. We were still able to manually underwrite loans for those transactions that did not fit the box. Then the bottom fell out of the business and everyone got scared and new rules came out. Investors and Wall Street were to blame for allowing individuals who were not telling the truth to buy homes. Today investors are pre-underwriting loans prior to purchase and we have to ‘march to their tune’ including getting pieces of paper that seem ridiculous, but since we need the investor to purchase the loan so we obtain them anyway. Only the most qualified borrowers with all their ducks in a row get loans these days. Manually underwritten loans are subject to scrutiny such as we have never seen before and frankly, we do not have the courage to paint outside of the lines because we cannot afford to have a loan purchase refused. Today, it takes two to three times as long to underwrite a loan and we have checklist upon checklist that help us make sure all of the i’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed. I have been doing this for over 30 years and frankly we are back to the rules of the early 80’s or worse when it comes to documentation.” more…

What Economic Stats Are Doing To Rates
Are we heading for lower rates, or higher rates? Certainly there is no inflationary pressure, although GDP for the fourth quarter (generally thought of as “old news”) was revised slightly higher, and was the strongest quarter of economic growth in more than six years. But Existing Home Sales decreased over 7% in January and was much weaker than expected. At over 3 million units available for sale, at the current pace this is almost an eight month supply. And for the sales in January, 38% were “distressed” sales which include foreclosures. (Maybe we’ll get another tax related surge in the coming months based on the April 30th date, maybe not.)

Also on Friday we had the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index show a little increase in February, but the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping slightly from January’s levels. But how do Purchasing Managers stack up against news from Greece, or the level of foreign interest in buying our debt? They don’t. The threat of ratings cuts for Greece fueled demand for the safety of U.S. debt and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke pledged to hold interest rates at a record low – so don’t look for (short term) rates moving much higher. But continued faith in U.S. economy could fade quickly without signs that Congress is crafting plans to address the very large deficit in which we find ourselves – Bernanke believes that deficits need to be brought down to 2.5% to 3% of the nation’s gross domestic product to be sustainable. more…

Treasury Auctions Weigh on Markets
Yesterday’s $42 billion 5-yr auction did not go well. It goes back to the “What if we held an auction and nobody bid?” Indirect bids, which in the past indicated a level of interest from foreign entities but in the last year became a little convoluted, have been on a roller coaster: Tuesday’s 2-yr hit over 53% of the auction while yesterday’s was the lowest since July at 40%. Not good. The Bernanke testimony (rates need to remain low), along with the much worse-than-expected New Homes Sales data, muddled the picture somewhat for investors yesterday. The good news for mortgage folks is that dealers are reporting heavy selling, and selling is often powered by locks, so current locks must be picking up.

New Home Sales Down 11%
The New Home Sales data was particularly bad. In January sales dropped 11%, the worst on record and erasing all the gains from last year. Nationwide, inventory represents over a 9 month supply – the highest in almost a year. And year-over-year the median price for a new home fell in January by 2.4%, to $203,500 from $208,600 a year ago. Regionally, January new-home sales dropped 35.1% in the Northeast, 11.9% in the West, and 9.5% in the South. Sales rose 2.1% in the Midwest. more…

NAR’s Proposal for Fannie/Freddie
My daughter and I went through the McDonald’s take-out window and I gave the clerk a $5 bill. Our total was $4.25, so I also handed her a quarter. She said, “You gave me too much money.” I said, “Yes I know, but this way you can just give me a dollar bill back.” She sighed and went to get the manager, who asked me to repeat my request. I did so, and he handed me back the quarter, and said, “We’re sorry but we could not do that kind of thing.” The clerk then proceeded to give me back $1 and 75 cents in change.

Numbers can really be confusing. And when you are dealing with companies that back half of the $11 trillion home loans, things become even more confusing. What would you do about the role of the agencies in the mortgage industry? The National Association of Realtors has put forth a proposal to convert Freddie & Fannie into nonprofit corporations that would largely leave the mortgage-finance giants intact. Of course, the NAR or anyone else just can’t snap their fingers to make this happen: the proposal is likely to meet stiff political resistance because of the bail out money already spent and Congress’s desire to make bold changes. NAR suggests that unlike a federal agency, the new government non-profit authorities will function as self-sustaining organizations, without needing annual appropriations from Congress and without a profit motive but with government backing and guarantees. MI companies would continue to mitigate risk on loans above 80% LTV, and MBS guarantee fees would still be paid by originators. Of course no one wants to endanger the currently fragile housing and credit markets, least of all the NAR and Congress, so look for this process to be a very long and involved one. more…

State of Mortgage Industry
Let’s start off with two basic premises. First, there has always been a range of borrowers (credit & risk-wise) that need home loans at rates that match the risk. Second, there have always been investors out there with varying degrees of appetite for risk, and demand more return for higher risk. For prime borrowers, the end of the Fed’s MBS program is in sight: 5 weeks, $55 billion, that’s $11 billion a week. After which, of course, mortgage rates zoom out of reach, everyone still left in the business will have nothing to do, all refi’s and purchases will end, and I will fill the commentary every day with the worst puns and one-liners imaginable. Seriously, what is going to happen?

Based on anecdotal evidence, it appears that many mortgage companies had great Decembers, then January volumes of about half of December’s, and expect February to be somewhere between January and December’s volume levels. And although 2009 profits tended to make up for 2008 losses, profit margins also appear to be coming down as the realization sinks in that companies will want the production to support staffs. more…

What Are Covered Bonds, And Can They Help Housing?
Lately there has been some talk in the investor community about using covered bonds to supplement or replace mortgage-backed securities, therefore helping the secondary market for mortgages, which in turn would help originators. What is a “covered bond”? In this case, covered bonds are debt securities backed by the cash flows from mortgages, and recourse to a pool of mortgages secures (”covers”) the bond in case the issuer becomes insolvent. Covered bond assets remain on the issuer’s consolidated balance sheet, which comforts end-investors, since they are held on the issuers’ books and the interest is paid from an identifiable source. (Current MBS’s are not held on the issuers’ books.) This type of security has been popular in Europe, but not here in the US. New accounting rules, however, require issuers to carry collateral on their balance sheets even for securitized products such as mortgage bonds, a key feature of covered bonds, and there may be some legislation brewing regarding the FDIC taking over an issuer (in the event of a collapse) that would make it easier to issue them. In the event of default, the investor has recourse to both the pool and the issuer.

Mortgage Delinquencies Down
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBAA) released its “National Delinquency Survey” for the fourth quarter. A glimmer of good news shone forth as total mortgage delinquency rates, seasonally adjusted, were down 17 basis points during the fourth quarter. If only we could ignore the fact that they were up year-over-year by 159 basis points. At this point, reports the MBAA who recently sold their headquarters, 9.47% of all mortgages on one- to four-family homes are now in some state of delinquency. more…

Loan Agents Comment on New Good Faith Estimate
I didn’t plan on yesterday’s Real Words From a Real Agent to incite such a firestorm of e-mails. But first, some “Good Faith Estimate chatter.” The grace period of the new GFE is set forth pretty clearly. But lenders are finding out that what HUD allows and what investors actually do can be two different things.

The new Good Faith Estimate is still a problem for agents out in the field, along with title companies, Ops staffs, and investors. One experienced agent in California wrote: more…

Impact of Treasuries on Rates
“Suppose They Gave a War and Nobody Came” was a 1970 movie with Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis (both of whom are still with us). What if the Treasury gave an auction and nobody bid, aside from Primary Dealers who must bid? That is one of the fears that drove prices down and rates up yesterday, especially with the news that China fell behind Japan to become the second-biggest holder of US Treasuries. That is not a good thing, and is an indication that the Chinese have been acting on recent complaints about US policy by unloading US debt. China was a net seller of Treasuries by $34 billion, bringing its total holdings down to $755 billion from $790 billion in November. Money talks.

Also this morning Treasury announced $126b in Treasury security auctions next week which break down as follows: $8b in 30yr TIPS Tuesday, $44b in 2yr notes Tuesday, $42b in 5yr notes Wednesday, $32b in 7yr notes Thursday. This is leading to a second day of negative MBS trading which has caused rates to rise .25% to .375%. more…