Rates open even this week despite a barrage of news and data last week including a Presidential speech, a new Fed Chairman, the 14th Fed rate hike in 19 months, and a slew of big economic reports. It was a volatile week as predicted and rates were higher as of Friday, but concerns about America’s
Alan Greenspan
Welcome to part two of our 2006 mortgage rate outlook. Last month, we gave you a primer for understanding how rate markets work and how we formulate our predictions. This month, we will discuss how Alan Greenspan’s successor Ben Bernanke may impact rate markets, summarize Wall Street rate estimates, and make our own rate predictions
As expected, rates open this week only slightly higher. This is a huge week for rates, beginning Tuesday with the year’s first and Alan Greenspan’s last Fed meeting, where we can expect the overnight Fed Funds Rate to go from 4.25% to 4.5%. This would put Fed Funds and the 10-yr Treasury bond yield at
There was no MarketWeek last week because it was a holiday-shortened trading week and rates were relatively flat – as they’ve been for much of January. Next Tuesday is the year’s first and Alan Greenspan’s last Fed meeting, where we can expect a .25% increase in the overnight Fed Funds Rate. This will cause a
Welcome to the new year … a time when people on main street pull up their blogs and start typing up resolutions; and a time when people on Wall Street pull out their darts and start aiming at market charts. Of course, we’re using the dart analogy in jest. It’s based on a long-running Wall
In the past three weeks, fixed and ARM rates are up about .375%. Last week, the yield on the 10-year note (a critical benchmark for fixed mortgages and intermediate-term ARMs) was up 0.19% to hit 4.60%, which is just shy of the 4.69% high of 2005 which came on March 23. We may see more
Rates are up about .125% since my last market report on October 10 (I was off last Monday). In the last report, I said rates may increase as we head toward the holidays, and this still holds. Energy prices are still high, and giving consumers less expendable income. As it gets colder, this price pressure
Rates open this week up about .125% across the board, bringing the 3 week total to about +.30%. Rates held steady on Greenspan’s economic comments before Congress last week, but then bond markets sold off on the news of China removing it’s currency’s peg to the U.S. dollar. When bonds sell, prices decrease and yields
Rates open even this week, but are still about .25% higher than they’ve been in the past 4 to 5 weeks. This was unexpected given last week’s flat inflation data. Usually benign inflation reports are good for rates. Low inflation signals that the Fed might be toward the end of its tightening cycle, and bond
Rates/Commentary, for the week of June 6, 2005. 30-yr and ARM rates are down .125% from last week. And it wasn’t the dismal May jobs report that came out Friday as many might expect. It was comments from the new Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president Richard Fisher who said mid-week that the Fed’s June 30
Rates/commentary for the week of April 11, 2005. Fixed and ARM rates open this week the same as last week, holding onto the dip we saw after the weak March jobs report. Prior to that, if you recall, rates had jumped up on Greenspan’s comments after the March 22 FOMC meeting. He talked of how
Rates/commentary for the week of April 4, 2005. Fixed and ARM rates are down .125% this week, providing relief from the .375% uptrend of during March. Rates dropped Friday after the jobs growth report came in much weaker than expected (110k new non-farm payrolls vs. 225k projected). This is a signal to investors that the
Last month, The Economist published a study (with Barclays Capital) claiming it’s better to rent than buy right now. The publication is eminently credible, but this claim warrants some Bay Area perspective. There may be property bubbles in “certain areas” as even Fed Chairman Greenspan has acknowledged. However, Greenspan and Economist editors tend to make
Rates/commentary for the week of March 22, 2004. I am back in the saddle after my wedding and two amazing weeks in Hawaii. While I was away, a dismal jobs report caused rates to drop below all-time lows from May 2003. This news would usually correct itself as investors realize all other economic fundamentals are
Rates/commentary for the week of February 9, 2004. Rates open this week about .125% lower after Friday’s weaker than expected Employment Report. Current record low rates aren’t likely to spike too soon because there are no immediate signs of inflation. But we also can’t expect rates to fall too much lower because new jobs are
Rates/commentary for the week of February 2, 2004. Punxsutawney Phil, one of the world’s preeminent forecasters, saw his shadow this morning which means six more weeks of cold conditions. And with 4th quarter GDP coming in colder than expected on Friday, preeminent forecaster Alan Greenspan seems to think that the economy is safe from inflation,
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