Consumer Sentiment
Today's fundamentals: new home sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Jobless Claims (week ended 11/17/2012) New Claims – 410,000. Previous revised from 439,000 to 451,000 4-week Moving Average – 396,350. Previous revised to 386,750 Sandy created both job loss and difficulty in gathering data. I don’t believe that much can be inferred from this report. MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/16/2012) Purchase Index – Week/Week
Import/Export Prices (October 2012) Export Prices – Month/Month + 0.0% Export Prices – Year/Year +1.4% Import Prices – Month/Month +0.5% Import Prices – Year/Year +0.4% Trade prices and volume could prove interesting in the coming 12 months. Important factors are: decreased demand for exports as parts of the EU fall into recession. Flat or decreased
PPI (September 2012) – PPI (wholesale inflation) Month/Month core (less food and energy) was +.0.0% – PPI (wholesale inflation) Month/Month overall +1.1% – PPI (wholesale inflation) Year/Year core (less food and energy) was +2.3% The contained core is what is important as a longer term macroeconomic indicator. With the Fed’s enormous expansion of money supply
Personal Income and Outlays (August 2012) Personal Income – Month/Month +0.1% Consumer Spending – Month/Month +0.5% PCE Price Index — Month/Month +0.4% Core PCE price index – Month/Month 0.1% Nominal Income was up slightly. Real (inflation adjusted) income was down. Higher gas prices made real income lower. Factoring out food and gas real income was
Personal Income and Outlays (August 2012) Personal Income – Month/Month +0.1% Consumer Spending – Month/Month +0.5% PCE Price Index — Month/Month +0.4% Core PCE price index – Month/Month 0.1% Nominal Income was up slightly. Real (inflation adjusted) income was down. Higher gas prices made real income lower. Factoring out food and gas real income was
Rates up today as MBS selloff gains steam into afternoon. Also a GDP CHART 2008-PRESENT.
Rates even to slightly up this morning after this data from today.
Summary of Friday's fundamentals: personal income/spending, PCE inflation, consumer sentiment (forgot to click Publish yesterday!).
Consumer sentiment best since October 2007. Here's the home sales data contributing to this mood.
Rates still holding near record lows.
Roundup today's data/charts: consumer spending, income, inflation, sentiment. Plus manufacturing.
Roundup today's data/charts: consumer spending, income, inflation, sentiment. Plus manufacturing.
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