Bonds and especially oil are trading wildly today as markets sort through mixed data. Both are generally up as the Libya situation unfolds, and when bond prices rise on a rally, rates drop. As for oil, was as high as $103 today and now more like $97. Below are the data releases from today: jobs
Durable Goods
Rates are about even today after rising yesterday, and 30yr rates are about 4.875%. Yesterday, December’s New Home Sales showed a 17.5% increase in single-family home sales (way more than 3.1% expected), the Fed said the economy is still struggling, and there was a well-received 5-yr Treasury auction. The Fed announcement should have offset the
2011 Mortgage Rate Outlook The Mortgage Bankers Association released their mortgage rate predictions yesterday. They expect rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increasing to a 4.7% average in the first quarter of 2011, and climbing to 5.1% by the end of next year. Most late-2009, early-2010
Bond Bubble? WSJ has the latest bond bubble talk, saying bond markets are growing riskier as investors seeking steady returns bid up prices and ignore some early warning signs similar to those that flashed during the credit bubble. Last week, prices on high-yield, or junk, bonds hit their highest level since 2007, nearly double their
Guns & Mortgages This story speaks for itself, here’s the link and the epic lead paragraph below: Prosecutors: Mortgage Worker Got Drunk, Shot Computer Server A Salt Lake City mortgage company employee allegedly got drunk, opened fired on his firm’s computer server with a .45-caliber automatic, and then told police someone had stolen his gun
Short Sales Take 6-13 Months A study put out by Deutsche Bank ranked GMAC ranked as the top servicer among all prime mortgage servicers based on short sale timelines – six months! The investment bank’s survey showed that a short sale generated a higher recovery than an REO sale. For “prime” short sales, GMAC was
Rates Up On New Home Sales & Durable Goods Numbers Today we had Durable Goods (very volatile) and a big New Home Sales number. Durable Goods were expected to be +.3% for March and originally reported as +.5% in February, the third consecutive monthly increase (although most of the gain in February’s number was due
Does A Loan Originator Have To Buy Back A Bad Loan Even After It’s Modified? Yesterday I mentioned the question about whether or not modified loans could still be forced back to the seller for buybacks. Freddie Mac does indeed say that the seller would still need to buy it back after a modification. At
Lots of Economic News, Commercial Property Update, $7.8b Freddie Loss, Lender Comments From Trenches
Treasury Auctions Weigh on Markets Yesterday’s $42 billion 5-yr auction did not go well. It goes back to the “What if we held an auction and nobody bid?” Indirect bids, which in the past indicated a level of interest from foreign entities but in the last year became a little convoluted, have been on a
ARMs Only 3% Of Total Agency Loans In 2009 An annual report on the ARM market published by Freddie Mac shows adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for just 3 percent of all conventional home purchase loans in 2009. That’s the smallest percentage for ARMs since at least 1982. Market & Economic News Update Yes, today we have
Treasury’s Unlimited Fannie/Freddie Backing, Buffett To Buy Mortgage Firm?, Light Economic Data Week
Treasury’s Unlimited Fannie/Freddie Backing Regardless of whether or not it is good or bad for our industry, or the debate about the timing of the announcement, on Christmas Eve the U.S. Treasury agreed to provide Fannie & Freddie unlimited capital as needed over the next three years. It is an effort to reassure the investors
Some days the best thing about my job is that my chair spins! (Sad but true.) But then along comes items like this. Who would have ever thought FHA compliance and underwriting issues would have made it to mainstream videos-–- Youtube bliss not to be missed. MBAA Selling DC Headquarters Building The MBAA has been
In the 1990’s it was hard to lose money in the stock market. “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market” was a popular slogan, and in fact was printed on a shirt that we wore on the trading desk at Tuttle & Co. Late in the decade, however, stocks did not look so great. When
Do mortgage originators consider the future when they are speaking with a client and processing the loan? Perhaps: certainly between 2002 and 2007 originators “appeared” willing to lend to anyone since values were increasing, and any problems might be covered up with appreciation. They weren’t necessarily forcing the borrower to borrow, and investors weren’t being
“In Alaska, wildlife officials want to protect the public from dangerous bears by dyeing the bears bright colors like blue, green and orange. Apparently, nothing calms down a man-eating bear like painting it.” And nothing calms mortgage servicers down like an all-day meeting with the Treasury Department. This happened yesterday, and they promised to “step
Last night I heard my daughter saying her prayers. “Dear God, please send clothes for all those poor ladies in Daddy’s computer. Amen.” Analysis of Mortgage Bond Selloff and Rate Projections One trader said, “Mortgages are getting banged like a screen door in a hurricane.” I assume that he was talking about mortgages and bond
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