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Loan Costs Up 37% Nationally
Loan costs are up 37% nationally this year, and 41% in Illinois, according to Bankrate Inc. Lenders absorbed a certain portion of this increase as the government began requiring lenders to provide more accurate good faith estimates of closing costs or face penalties. Nationally, average estimated closing costs rose to $3,741 from $2,732. The most expensive state was New York, where costs averaged $5,623, and Texas, where costs averaged $4,708. It includes lenders’ origination fees and title and settlement fees. It does not include property taxes, recording fees or homeowners insurance.

Fate of Fannie & Freddie
Freddie Mac announced that it will be asking for an additional $1.8 billion cash infusion from the Treasury Department after reporting a 2nd quarter loss of $6 billion. ($6 billion is better than the $8 billion lost during the 1st quarter, but still…) These numbers include stock dividends payable to the US Treasury. So I guess Freddie pays a dividend, and then basically asks for it back in order to continue functioning? There continues to be conjecture about Fannie/Freddie’s fate. The latest comes from an ex-Fed Governor, William Poole, and is worth a skim. Ultimately, of course, if those companies leave the US mortgage market, and are replaced by private investors, it will have a huge impact on both small and lenders. more…

FHA Mortgage Insurance Increasing October 4
FHA mortgage insurance will be increasing as of October 4, 2010 because the FHA insurance pool only has $3.5 billion in cash and Treasury securities left in its “capital reserve account” The money sitting in the CRA represents a 71% decline in just the last three months. The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMIF) capital ratio has fallen below its statutorily mandated threshold. On the good news side of the ledger, from October through June the FHA had 19,310 fewer insurance claims on loans gone bad and paid $3.7 billion less than projected by the audit, perhaps due to solid foreclosure efforts although some feel that this is only because some states are experiencing a backlog in processing foreclosures.

Under HR 5981, FHA plans to adjust its annual mortgage insurance premium (effective with any new loans October 4) from .55% to 1.55%, yielding approximately $300 million per month in value to the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund at a time when its reserves are perilously low. To offset this, FHA will lower its upfront premium from 2.25% to 1.25%. This will be effective for 30yr fixed loans. As you can guess, mortgage insurance companies are pleased with this news, since annual FHA premiums will be closer to annual PMI premiums and that could encourage lenders and borrowers to turn to non-FHA products for more mortgages. Borrowers currently shopping for FHA loans should revisit their strategy with their lender given this new news. more…

How To Leave Your Underwater Home
Fannie Mae launched a new consumer website, KnowYourOptions.com, to educate homeowners about their options to avoid foreclosure and how to get help. There’s an accompanying site for lenders who want marketing materials to promote these KnowYourOptions features.

Treasury Auctions Next Week
The Treasury will sell $34 billion of 3-yr notes next week, down from $38 billion at its last quarterly refunding, $24 billion of 10-yr notes, and $16 billion of 30-yr bonds on Aug. 12. (The U.S. Treasury again cut the size of debt offerings, citing stronger tax revenues, but warned it may not be able to keep trimming sales at the same rate due to doubts about economic recovery.) By the end of the day, 10-yr Treasuries were down almost .5 in price to 2.96%, and current coupon mortgage security prices were worse by about .125. Originators sold $2.9 billion – mostly 4% – a little more than recent volumes. more…

Out of the 2,300 pages in the soon-to-be-law financial reform bill, none of them attempt to reform Freddie or Fannie – most say because F&F deserve their own reform bill and that will happen in 2011 after the U.S. Treasury completes its study. Fannie was created in 1938 to help buy mortgages from financial institutions and free up capital that could, in turn, be lent to consumers by banks, and Freddie was created in 1970 to do the same for S&L’s and to keep Fannie from being a monopoly. Investors – foreign and domestic – had the belief that loans backed by Freddie and Fannie carry an implicit US government guarantee. These two GSEs functioned as quasi-private companies that bought, bundled and securitized trillions of dollars of mortgages, in the form of mortgage-backed securities, and currently hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion of them. (There are others GSE’s – Government Sponsored Enterprises – like the Federal Home Loan Banks, the Farm Credit System, and Farmer Mac. Of course there is HUD & the FHA, and the VA program.)

The problem is, of course, that taxpayers, through the US government, have put up about $150 billion to keep them afloat, their value (and the value of the stock) has plunged, and analysts expect many more billions will be required to keep them solvent. The 25 basis point “guarantee fee”, added to the interest rate of the borrower, is not enough. Foreign investors who own their debt are concerned about the safety of their holdings, in turn requiring a higher return on their money for the additional risk – and to lower the risk we have effectively nationalized the two companies although their debt is not included on the government’s balance sheet. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office cannot audit either one, and if one combines the government bailout money of F&F with the existing budget deficit, it totals about $16 trillion, over 100% of our GDP. more…

Financial Reform Back In Headlines
Our elected officials return from the July 4th recess this week, and those in the mortgage business are waiting to see if the Senate passes the Financial Reform Bill and passes it along to the president for his signature – as expected. Among other things to note, the bill establishes the “Consumer Financial Protection Bureau” (CFPB). The CFPB will be part of the Federal Reserve Board with broad authority to write rules to protect consumers from unfair or deceptive financial products, acts or practices. This agency will be led by a Director appointed by the President. “The CFPB will be responsible for regulation and enforcement of major consumer protection laws including RESPA, TILA, HOEPA, HMDA, etc. primarily for non-depository lenders.

New Appraisal Requirements From Fannie
Fannie Mae spooked the appraisal herd recently by requiring that lenders cannot use inexperienced appraisers, wanting lenders to explain any changes made to the appraised value of a property, requiring interior photos, requiring a 2nd appraisal or field review if the original appraisal was deficient (and not to find a better value), and providing further guidance on how to determine comps. This is starting September 1st. Of course the business is dealing with appraisers not being able to find enough comps, and/or “distressed sales” making up a greater portion of the real estate market therefore becoming the only comps and pushing values down. Typically three comparable sales are required with a maximum price adjustment of 15%. Appraisers are also dealing with the Dodd-Frank Act, which would require lenders and AMCs to pay appraisers “customary and reasonable fees” which in turn begs the question “What does that mean?” Many believe that banks and larger lenders will return to having internal valuation departments rather than outsourcing to an AMC. more…

Fannie Mae Relief For Homeowners Near Oil Spill
CitiMortgage will suspend all foreclosure sales and filings for 90 days on its 1st mortgages within 25 miles of the Gulf coast. Fannie Mae said that servicers of Fannie-backed loans may immediately suspend or lower payments on mortgages for borrowers whose income or property were affected by the spill. Under the Fannie Mae program, servicers can offer to postpone or lower payments for up to 90 days, during which the servicer is expected to verify the borrower’s income loss or the damage the oil spill may have done to their property. Freddie Mac will grant up to six months forbearance to victims of the oil spill.

Re-Defaults of Modified Loans
Fitch Ratings forecasts that most borrowers who get lower mortgage payments under a federal government program will default within 12 months. This is not much of a surprise to anyone involved in modifying mortgages, but in a story by WSJ’s James Hagerty: more…

Moody’s Cuts Greece To Junk
Moody’s cut Greece’s credit ratings to junk status (Ba1). Greece has been downgraded to non investment grade and Spain cannot seem to find any funding to rescue its savings banks. Of course, the rate on any fixed income security tied to Europe has gone up to compensate investors for the risk, and prices have dropped. The risk of owning Europe’s corporate bonds is the highest on record relative to U.S. company debt. The 12-month bill, which paid an average yield of 2.303 percent after 1.59 percent in the same auction in May, and the 18-month, which gave 2.837 percent, up from 1.951 percent, were seen as litmus tests for a more important 10- and 30-year bond auction tomorrow. Even France raised its retirement age from 60 to 62, sparking protests – although it won’t happen until 2018.

Of 33 Recessions Since 1854, Only 3 Double-Dips
Fortunately US recessionary “double-dips” are exceptionally rare. There have been only three episodes in US business cycle history when the economy lapsed back into recession within a year of the previous recession ending: 1913, 1920, and 1981. (Since 1854 there have been 33 recessions and only three instances when the economy lapsed back into recession within 12 months of exiting the previous downturn.) So this, combined with the fact that US exports to the Euro Zone only account for about 1% of our GDP, lead smarter minds than mine to believe that any chance of a double dip are minimal. more…

Lawmakers Solicit Consumer Comments On 7 Financial & Housing Reform Topics
Do you want some input in financial reform? There are many ways to do this, and here is another. The public will have the opportunity to submit written responses to seven questions that will be published in the federal register online at www.regulations.gov. The administration also plans a series of public forums across the country on housing finance reform. The questions are:

1. How should federal housing finance objectives be prioritized in the context of the broader objectives of housing policy? more…

I was reminded that 70% of the US economy is propelled by consumers, all consumers. Last night, after giving a speech to some UC Berkeley econ students, I was in a book store and the gal in front of me asked the clerk, “Do you have a book on ‘Karmageddon’? Its like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it’s like, a serious bummer.” Berkeley is eternal.

Can Foreclosed Borrowers Get New Loans?
In what many view as big news, Fannie Mae adjusted its underwriting criteria for borrowers who have experienced a “preforeclosure event”. This term encompasses preforeclosure sales, short sales, or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure. Starting in July, Fannie has changed the waiting period after the event and based it on the LTV for the transaction and any extenuating circumstances. In addition, Fannie Mae is updating the requirements for determining that borrowers have re-established their credit after a significant derogatory credit event. Basically borrowers have less time to wait if the LTV is low. more…

My clock radio went dead, so I was faced with the usual question, “Do I pay to have it repaired, or do I buy a new one?” I went to a local repair shop, and on the door was a sign that said, “WE CAN REPAIR ANYTHING. (PLEASE KNOCK – THE BELL DOESN’T WORK!)” Needless to say, I have a new clock radio.

$1.1t 2nd Mortgage Problem
It is also going to be hard to fix the potential problem with 2nd mortgages. There are roughly $1.1 trillion in second-lien mortgages out there. A research firm in New York believes that Bank of America, Chase, and Wells, who combined own about 40% of them, may have to set aside an additional $30 billion (matching their expected profits for all of 2010!) to cover possible losses on home-equity loans. (Home equity loans are often open-ended, as opposed to closed-end 2nds.) But of course banks have already set aside billions to cover bad loans – will it be enough? Of course second-lien loans are a hurdle when modifying first loans since first mortgages usually can’t be modified or written down because lien priority dictates that junior loans be erased first. As mentioned above, analysts are arguing whether or not the billions held in reserves will be enough. Bank of America holds $138 billion of home-equity loans with $112 billion of second liens. Wells Fargo holds $123 billion of home-equity loans, with about $103.7 billion in a junior-lien position, while CitiGroup’s portfolio is “only” about $49 billion. For the complete story. more…