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Rates are down this morning on continued fears of a double dip recession and the latest inflation report confirming tame prices. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in June and 1.5% year-over-year through June. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was 0.1% for June and 1.4% YOY through June. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. At 1.4%, Core inflation is within their comfort zone, and PCE inflation has been stable for a year. Mortgage bonds are rallying once again to record levels, which pushes rates down to new record lows.

Personal income was up 0.2% in July, which is the same range of the last 6 months. Wages rose 0.3%, which is roughly the same monthly level for all of 2010. The household savings rate was 5.9%, which is down from the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report. You can automatically create charts and download historical PCE data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.

Rates continue their run down this morning on doubts about the economy and the latest inflation report confirming tame prices. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in May and 1.9% year-over-year through May. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was unchanged for May and 1.3% YOY through May. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. At 1.2%, Core inflation is within their comfort zone, and PCE inflation has been stable since summer 2009. Mortgage bonds are rallying once again to record levels, which pushes rates down to new record lows.

Personal income was up 0.4% in May, which is the same range of the last 4 months. Wages rose 0.5%, which is roughly the same monthly level for all of 2010. The household savings rate was 4%. This is up from 3.8% last month as consumers again get more cautious about the economy, but it’s still significantly down from the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report. You can automatically create charts and download historical PCE data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.

Rates are slightly better today following a key inflation report this morning. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were unchanged in April and 2% year-over-year through April. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was 0.1% for April and 1.2% YOY through April. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. At 1.2%, Core inflation is within their comfort zone, and PCE inflation has been stable since summer 2009.

Personal income was up 0.4% in April after increasing the same in March, not changing in February, and increasing 0.3% percent in January. Wages rose 0.4%, which is roughly the same monthly level for all of 2010. The household savings rate was 3.6%, down from 4.8% in December and from the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report. You can automatically create charts and download historical PCE data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.

Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.1% in March and 2% year-over-year through March. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for March was 0.1% and 1.3% YOY through March. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. This 1.3% Core inflation (and the fact that PCE inflation has been stable since summer 2009) is within their comfort zone and reconfirms their statement last week that inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

Personal income was 0.3% in March after 0% in January and 0.3% in February. Wages were 0.2% in March after being flat in March and increasing 0.4% in January. The household savings rate dropped from 4.8% in December and 3% in February to 2.7% in March. The 12 month average savings rate is 4% which is well below the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Consumer spending was up 0.5%, the most in five months. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report. You can automatically create charts and download historical PCE data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.

The US Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the business and manufacturing levels of the economy, was 0.7% in March and 6% year-over-year through March. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PPI for March was 0.1% and 0.9% YOY through March. The “Core” numbers were very close to last month and considered tame, but the YOY March number of 6% is cause for concern. Rates initially ticked up on the news this morning, but have since evened out on stock weakness caused by: higher than expected jobless claims (456k actual vs. 450k expected) and a worse than previously reported number on Greece’s budget deficit. Looking forward today, Treasury will announce the amount of securities to be auctioned off next week: 2-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr, and 5-yr TIPS. And also President Obama will be speaking shortly on regulatory reform.

See the BLS charts for producer prices below; you can see how volatile this monthly inflation report is, and this is why markets shift so much each month as it’s released. Also you can automatically create charts and download historical PPI data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page. And you can see all stats on our Economic Calendar page, and click each release title for the definition of what each stat means.

The US Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy, was nearly flat at 0.1% in March and 2.3% year-over-year through March. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” CPI for March was unchanged and increased 1.1% YOY through March. Consumer inflation for the month is within the Fed’s comfort zone of 1-2%. Also released today was March Retail Sales showing a 1.6% gain. One month doesn’t make a trend but compared to February’s 0.5% number, it shows that consumers (who typically account for two-thirds of GDP) might be ramping up spending. This tame inflation data along with a more aggressive Retail Sales number have offset each other today in the bond market and rates are even as a result—low inflation typically causes bonds to rally and rates to drop, and an improving economic stat like today’s retail sales has the opposite market effect.

See Commerce Department’s retail sales charts below. Also you can automatically create charts and download historical CPI data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page. And you can see all stats on our Economic Calendar page, and click each release title for the definition of what each stat means.

Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were unchanged in February and 1.8% year-over-year through February. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for February was unchanged and 1.3% YOY through February. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. At 1.3%, Core inflation is within their comfort zone, as confirmed by Ben Bernanke’s remarks last week that inflation is likely to be subdued for some time, and the fact that PCE inflation has been stable since summer 2009.

Personal income was unchanged in February after increasing 0.3% percent in January, and wages were also flat after increasing 0.4% in January. The household savings rate dropped from 4.8% in December to 3.1% for February. The 12 month average savings rate is 4.1% which is well below the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report. You can automatically create charts and download historical PCE data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.

The US Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy, was unchanged in February and 2.1% year-over-year through February. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” CPI for February increased 0.1% and increased 1.3% YOY through February. You can automatically create charts and download historical CPI data by scrolling to our data section on the right side of the site, or visiting our Data page.

Consumer inflation for the month is within the Fed’s comfort zone of 1-2% and was again less than expectations. If you click on the ‘All CPI, Month’ link in our Data section, it will display a chart at the top of the section where you can see how the volatility of food and especially energy prices causes inflation swings month to month. When this happens traders react accordingly. Mortgage rates are tied to bond trading and bonds normally rally on low inflation news (pushing rates down), but today markets are also contending with a better than expected Philly Fed number and yesterday’s announcement of next week’s Treasury auctions, and mortgage bonds are down. You can always see all stats on our Economic Calendar page, and click each release title for the definition of what each stat means.

The US Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the business and manufacturing levels of the economy, was -0.6% in February and 4.4% year-over-year through February. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PPI for February was 0.1% and 1% YOY through February. These monthly “All” and “Core” numbers were lower than expected. Rates are steady on this morning’s news, and so far rates aren’t reacting negatively to this morning’s announcement of next week’s 2yr, 5yr, and 7yr Treasury Note auctions. Tomorrow’s consumer inflation number will give us another key inflation signal to follow today’s.

You can click the Monthly ‘All’ and ‘Core’ PPI reports in our Data section (on the lower right side of the site) or going to our full data page, and it will display a chart where you will see the monthly see-saw as inflation rises and falls monthly, which contributes to rate volatility. A lot of this has to do with oil price volatility, which you can also see by scrolling to the Data section. On surface level, market sentiment seems to be that inflation shouldn’t be an issue for some time because aggregate demand is compromised by weakened consumers and businesses, and reports like today’s confirm that. But it seems to be every other month that inflation fears flare up, and bonds trade wildly as inflation expectations are reconciled.

Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in January and 2.1% year-over-year through January. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index for January was unchanged and 1.4% YOY through January. The Fed looks closely at Core PCE excluding food and energy prices because of the price volatility of these two items, and the Fed’s zone for reasonable inflation is 1-2% per year. At 1.4%, Core inflation is within their comfort zone, as confirmed by the Ben Bernanke’s remarks last week that inflation is likely to be subdued for some time, and the fact that PCE inflation has been stable since summer 2009.

Personal income increased 0.1% percent in January, and wages were up 0.4% since December. The household savings rate dropped from 4.8% to 3.3% but not due solely to consumer spending. The larger reason for less savings is from a 0.6% decrease in disposable income (which is income adjusted for inflation and taxes). The 12 month average savings rate is 4.2% which is well below the May 2009 all-time record of 6.9%. Below are all key details from the Personal Income & Outlays report.