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Loan Costs Up 37% Nationally
Loan costs are up 37% nationally this year, and 41% in Illinois, according to Bankrate Inc. Lenders absorbed a certain portion of this increase as the government began requiring lenders to provide more accurate good faith estimates of closing costs or face penalties. Nationally, average estimated closing costs rose to $3,741 from $2,732. The most expensive state was New York, where costs averaged $5,623, and Texas, where costs averaged $4,708. It includes lenders’ origination fees and title and settlement fees. It does not include property taxes, recording fees or homeowners insurance.

Fate of Fannie & Freddie
Freddie Mac announced that it will be asking for an additional $1.8 billion cash infusion from the Treasury Department after reporting a 2nd quarter loss of $6 billion. ($6 billion is better than the $8 billion lost during the 1st quarter, but still…) These numbers include stock dividends payable to the US Treasury. So I guess Freddie pays a dividend, and then basically asks for it back in order to continue functioning? There continues to be conjecture about Fannie/Freddie’s fate. The latest comes from an ex-Fed Governor, William Poole, and is worth a skim. Ultimately, of course, if those companies leave the US mortgage market, and are replaced by private investors, it will have a huge impact on both small and lenders. more…

Out of the 2,300 pages in the soon-to-be-law financial reform bill, none of them attempt to reform Freddie or Fannie – most say because F&F deserve their own reform bill and that will happen in 2011 after the U.S. Treasury completes its study. Fannie was created in 1938 to help buy mortgages from financial institutions and free up capital that could, in turn, be lent to consumers by banks, and Freddie was created in 1970 to do the same for S&L’s and to keep Fannie from being a monopoly. Investors – foreign and domestic – had the belief that loans backed by Freddie and Fannie carry an implicit US government guarantee. These two GSEs functioned as quasi-private companies that bought, bundled and securitized trillions of dollars of mortgages, in the form of mortgage-backed securities, and currently hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion of them. (There are others GSE’s – Government Sponsored Enterprises – like the Federal Home Loan Banks, the Farm Credit System, and Farmer Mac. Of course there is HUD & the FHA, and the VA program.)

The problem is, of course, that taxpayers, through the US government, have put up about $150 billion to keep them afloat, their value (and the value of the stock) has plunged, and analysts expect many more billions will be required to keep them solvent. The 25 basis point “guarantee fee”, added to the interest rate of the borrower, is not enough. Foreign investors who own their debt are concerned about the safety of their holdings, in turn requiring a higher return on their money for the additional risk – and to lower the risk we have effectively nationalized the two companies although their debt is not included on the government’s balance sheet. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office cannot audit either one, and if one combines the government bailout money of F&F with the existing budget deficit, it totals about $16 trillion, over 100% of our GDP. more…

Back in January, here’s what we said about rates and the economy:

“As we move through 2010, our outlook is for waning Fed support to push rates approximately 1% higher, and for a choppy economic recovery marked by modest GDP growth and minimal employment improvement.”

Conforming 30-year fixed rates were at 5% at the time. At this July 14 writing, rates are much lower at 4.57%. Clearly our rate view was conservative but at least our economic outlook is still accurate, and at least rates are lower. more…

Moody’s Cuts Greece To Junk
Moody’s cut Greece’s credit ratings to junk status (Ba1). Greece has been downgraded to non investment grade and Spain cannot seem to find any funding to rescue its savings banks. Of course, the rate on any fixed income security tied to Europe has gone up to compensate investors for the risk, and prices have dropped. The risk of owning Europe’s corporate bonds is the highest on record relative to U.S. company debt. The 12-month bill, which paid an average yield of 2.303 percent after 1.59 percent in the same auction in May, and the 18-month, which gave 2.837 percent, up from 1.951 percent, were seen as litmus tests for a more important 10- and 30-year bond auction tomorrow. Even France raised its retirement age from 60 to 62, sparking protests – although it won’t happen until 2018.

Of 33 Recessions Since 1854, Only 3 Double-Dips
Fortunately US recessionary “double-dips” are exceptionally rare. There have been only three episodes in US business cycle history when the economy lapsed back into recession within a year of the previous recession ending: 1913, 1920, and 1981. (Since 1854 there have been 33 recessions and only three instances when the economy lapsed back into recession within 12 months of exiting the previous downturn.) So this, combined with the fact that US exports to the Euro Zone only account for about 1% of our GDP, lead smarter minds than mine to believe that any chance of a double dip are minimal. more…

Rate shoppers and watchers should note that the lowest rates on official record are here now. The chart below shows rates from June 2010 back to April 1971, when Freddie Mac started officially tracking 30 year mortgage rates. The high was in October 1981, when then Fed chairman Paul Volcker was hiking rates to battle inflation (more on this below). At that time, borrowers paid an average of 2.3 points to buy a rate down to 18.45%. The low was May 27, 2010 when borrowers averaged 0.7 points to buy a rate down to 4.78%—note that 4.78% with 0.7 points was also achieved three times in 2009: April 2, April 30, and November 25. These are national average rates on loans up to $417,000 for single family homes with 20% or more equity in the property. Rates change daily as mortgage bonds trade.

FULL SIZE CHART

Greece’s Impact On U.S. Mortgage Rates
Turning to Greece, since that situation is certainly impacting our markets, the fear that a) the problems will spread beyond Greece, b) Greece may leave the 11-yr old single currency “euro-zone, or c) this is the beginning of the entire euro experiment are causing a drop in the value of the euro and a rally in the dollar. (Not that the dollar should be in great shape, but hey, we’ll take what we can get.) A general strike shut down Greek airports, tourist sites and public services and some 50,000 demonstrators marched against the planned public spending cuts and tax rises, demanding that tax cheats and corrupt politicians be put on trial. Off with their heads!

So what does it mean to our mortgage business (rates) if Europe “tightens its belt”? This would actually continue to help our rates since it would slow the recovery in Europe, reduce the chance of inflation around the world, and allow our Fed to keep short-term rates low (monetary policy to be more accommodative) for longer than expected. A stronger US dollar is good for keeping inflation down. more…

Rates Up On New Home Sales & Durable Goods Numbers
Today we had Durable Goods (very volatile) and a big New Home Sales number. Durable Goods were expected to be +.3% for March and originally reported as +.5% in February, the third consecutive monthly increase (although most of the gain in February’s number was due to a 4.7% monthly increase in machinery bookings). New Home Sales surged 27% in March, fueled by the Federal homebuyer tax credit which expires April 30. Mortgage bonds are currently down about 25 basis points on these better than expected economic reports. More on why rates are moving up in the last section below.

Varying Home Sales Data
Existing Home Sales rose 6.8% in March to an annualized pace that is the fastest since December. Total housing inventory is now at an 8 month supply. The median price was $170,700 in March, up 0.4% from March 2009. Distressed homes accounted for 35% of sales last month – unchanged from February. Sales have been above year-ago levels for nine straight months, and inventory has trended down from year-ago levels for 20 straight months. But FHFA’s Purchase-Only House Price Index (it covers only conforming loans) fell 0.2% in February and is down by 3.4% from its level in February 2009. The regional indices came in mixed, with declines in the South Atlantic, New England, and West North Central divisions offsetting moderate increases in the Middle Atlantic, Pacific, and West South Central regions. more…

My clock radio went dead, so I was faced with the usual question, “Do I pay to have it repaired, or do I buy a new one?” I went to a local repair shop, and on the door was a sign that said, “WE CAN REPAIR ANYTHING. (PLEASE KNOCK – THE BELL DOESN’T WORK!)” Needless to say, I have a new clock radio.

$1.1t 2nd Mortgage Problem
It is also going to be hard to fix the potential problem with 2nd mortgages. There are roughly $1.1 trillion in second-lien mortgages out there. A research firm in New York believes that Bank of America, Chase, and Wells, who combined own about 40% of them, may have to set aside an additional $30 billion (matching their expected profits for all of 2010!) to cover possible losses on home-equity loans. (Home equity loans are often open-ended, as opposed to closed-end 2nds.) But of course banks have already set aside billions to cover bad loans – will it be enough? Of course second-lien loans are a hurdle when modifying first loans since first mortgages usually can’t be modified or written down because lien priority dictates that junior loans be erased first. As mentioned above, analysts are arguing whether or not the billions held in reserves will be enough. Bank of America holds $138 billion of home-equity loans with $112 billion of second liens. Wells Fargo holds $123 billion of home-equity loans, with about $103.7 billion in a junior-lien position, while CitiGroup’s portfolio is “only” about $49 billion. For the complete story. more…

Today’s historic signing of health reform into law by President Obama has overshadowed something else that happened today: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testified before the House Financial Services Committee about the future of housing finance, and the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—the two government entities that guarantee $5t and 50% of our residential mortgage market. Here’s the link to the full testimony, and below are the excerpts that are most critical, starting with how Fannie and Freddie were taken over by the government in September 2008, and what Geithner proposes as a structure for the future of housing finance.

This is the basic framework for less reliance on Fannie and Freddie in the future, and Geithner points out next steps as follows: Treasury and HUD will submit a list of questions by April 15, 2010 for public comment and will seek responses from a wide variety of constituents, market participants, academic experts, and consumer and community organizations. Then the administration would use that feedback to provide a proposal for housing finance reform to Congress. So it appears this will happen closer to summer but well before the 2010 election. more…

Rates Up This Morning, Slow Economic Week
Last week rates were moved around by economic data. By Friday rates had improved slightly, and locks appeared to be picking up a little, but then a better-than-expected employment number pushed them higher. Fortunately for mortgage rates, the spread between them and the 10-yr Treasury (still a benchmark, in spite of actual rates more closely tracking 5-yr and 7-yr notes) is the lowest it has ever been. This week won’t have as much to chew on: the Trade Balance & Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, and Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Business Inventories come out Friday. And on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday the US Government will be selling securities to finance its activities: $74 billion broken down by $40 billion in three-year notes, $21 billion in 10-year notes and $13 billion in 30-year bonds. Ahead of this the 10-yr yield is up to 3.72% and mortgage prices are worse by between .125 and .250 in price.

Four More Banks Fail
When I was a kid, I used to pray every night for a new bike. Then I realized that God doesn’t work that way. So instead I stole a bike and asked Him to forgive me. Neither strategy worked for four more banks, as the FDIC shut them down Friday (without finding buyers for two of them leading to losses for depositors who had balances exceeding the agency’s insurance limits). Sun American’s (FL) deposits and assets were acquired by First-Citizens Bank (NC) at a cost to the FDIC of $103 million. The Bank of Illinois was “absorbed” by Heartland Bank (IL) at a cost to the FDIC of about $54 million. Waterfield Bank (MD), at a cost to the FDIC $51 million, and Utah’s Centennial Bank are now being run by the FDIC, with the help of Zion’s Bank, at a cost of about $96 million. more…