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This report covers weeks 60-61 of a mortgage bond purchase program by the Federal Reserve—here’s weeks 57-59. In the last two weeks, the Fed bought $21b net of mortgage bonds as follows: $11b Feb 18-24, $10b Feb 24-Mar 3. For the past 6 months, the Fed has focused weekly buying on 4.5% and 5% coupons (tables below), which represent outstanding loans in the 4.75%-5.125% and 5.375%-5.75% ranges respectively. This makes sense since most of the new bond supply coming to market from new loans being made are at those rate ranges.

Rates have held below 5% since dipping last week, but are advancing higher this morning’s release of the February jobs report which was interpreted as positive despite the economy losing 36k jobs and forced-into-part-time workers increasing by 500k. Rates are still just a touch above all-time lows, but how long will it stay this way? more…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 36,000 private sector jobs in February. January was revised from -20k to -26k jobs lost and December was revised from -150k to -109k jobs lost. This means 25 of the last 26 months have shown losses, putting the job loss toll since the recession began in December 2007 at 8.4 million. In 2009, 4.8m jobs were lost. BLS also reported that 14.8 million people are unemployed. This is a 9.7% unemployment rate, up 4.8% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts below.

Additionally there are now 8.8 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 4.1m million since January 2008, and increased by 500k this month, offsetting a big drop in January. January’s drop from 9.2m to 8.3m was the first improvement in nine months. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 8.8 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 8.8 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. Markets are interpreting today’s report as positive—stocks are rallying, bonds are selling off, and rates are higher—but this statistic is mostly undiscussed in market coverage.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 20,000 private sector jobs in January, and December was revised from -85k to -150k. This means 24 of the last 25 months have shown losses, putting the job loss toll since January 2008 at 8.42 million. In 2009, 4.8m jobs were lost. BLS also reported that 14.8 million people are unemployed. This is a 9.7% unemployment rate, up 4.8% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts below.

Additionally there are now 8.3 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 3.6 million since January 2008, but dropped significantly this month for the fist time in nine months (it was 9.2m last month). This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 8.3 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 8.3 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. But the significant drop this month along with the drop in unemployment is encouraging. more…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 85,000 private sector jobs in December, and November was revised to a positive 4,000 jobs. This means 23 of the last 24 months have shown losses, putting the job loss toll since January 2008 at 7.24 million, which is the largest drop (as a percentage of all jobs) since World War II ended in 1945. In 2009, 4.16 million jobs were lost. BLS also reported that 15.3 million people are unemployed. This is a 10% unemployment rate, up 5.1% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts below.

Additionally there are now 9.2 million people (unchanged from last month) who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 4.5 million since January 2008, but has been little changed in the past eight months. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 9.2 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 9.2 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. more…

Today, ADP, a provider of payroll services to 22 million Americans employed in the private sector, released their monthly jobs data which showed that the economy lost -84k jobs in December. This was a bit worse than expected, but the November number was revised better from -169k to -145k. Although overall economic activity is stabilizing and this was the least amount of job losses reported by ADP since March 2008, employment usually trails economic activity, so it is likely to decline for at least a few more months. This slowing of job losses will be confirmed Friday when the official Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report comes out Friday. You can view previous months of both reports by clicking the ADP and BLS tags below, and you can also scroll to our data section to review current and historical jobs data.

After reporting numbers way under official BLS numbers throughout 2008, ADP reports started tracking closer to the official government jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics later in 2009. But ADP is not totally reliable since for example the BLS report for November showed 11k jobs lost and the (original) ADP November number was -169k. The jobs report has a large impact on markets, and mortgage rates always move on this report since it’s such a broad measure of the economy, covering consumer strength, unemployment and wage inflation. Rates are still holding within .25% of the lowest levels since 1971—the lowest on official record. More details from the ADP report below: more…

WeeklyBasis is normally published Fridays, but this Monday report is an exception so I can do an outlook on this first business day of 2010. To summarize, my outlook is for waning Fed support to push rates to about 1% higher, and choppy economic recovery marked by modest GDP growth and minimal employment improvement. Rationale for these positions is below.

Please note that conforming rates are assumed when discussing rates because these are the broadest proxies for how all rate tiers behave. Current conforming, super conforming and jumbo rates are also included at the bottom along with loan amounts designated by each of these categories. more…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 11,000 private sector jobs in November. This is the 23rd straight month of losses, putting the job loss toll since January 2008 at 7.16 million, with 4.08 million of these job losses occurring in 2009. After six straight months of losses greater than 500k from November 2008 to April 2009, job losses leveled off despite one spike in June 2009, and today’s report is a big surprise with losses decreasing so significantly. BLS also reported that 15.4 million people are unemployed. This is a 10% unemployment rate, up 5.1% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts below.

Additionally there are now 9.2 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 4.5 million since January 2008, but has been little changed in the past seven months. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 9.2 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 9.2 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. more…

Today, ADP, a provider of payroll services to 23 million Americans employed in the private sector, released their monthly jobs data which showed that the economy lost -169k jobs in November, a bit worse than expected. November was the eighth consecutive month during which the decline in employment was less than in the previous month. Although overall economic activity is stabilizing and this was the least amount of job losses reported by ADP since July 2008, employment usually trails economic activity, so it is likely to decline for at least a few more months.

This slowing of job losses will be confirmed Friday when the official Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report comes out Friday. You can view previous months by clicking the ADP tag below. After reporting numbers way under official BLS numbers throughout 2008, ADP reports have been close to the official government jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this year. The jobs report has a large impact on markets, and mortgage rates always move on this report since it’s such a broad measure of the economy, covering consumer strength, unemployment and wage inflation. Rates are still holding onto the lowest levels since 1971—the lowest on official record.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 190,000 private sector jobs in October. This is the 22nd straight month of losses, putting the job loss toll since January 2008 at 7.3 million, with 4.23 million of these job losses occurring in 2009. After six straight months of losses greater than 500k from November 2008 to April 2009, job losses have leveled off despite a spike in June 2009. BLS also reported that 15.7 million people are unemployed. This is a 10.2% unemployment rate, up 5.3% since the recession began in December 2007. See charts below.

Additionally there are now 9.3 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 4.6 million since January 2008, but has been little changed in the past six months. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 9.3 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 9.3 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. more…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 263,000 private sector jobs in September. This is the 21st straight month of losses, putting the job loss toll since January 2008 at 7.21 million, with 4.13 million of these job losses occurring in 2009. After six straight months of losses greater than 500k, May’s revised-down 303k job loss number was a relief, June flared up, July and August eased off, then another spike last month. BLS also reported that 15.1 million people are unemployed. This is a 9.8% unemployment rate, up 4.9% from a year ago. See charts below.

Additionally there are now 9.2 million people who would like to work full time but are working part time because their hours have been cut or they can’t find full-time jobs. This forced-into-part-time-work category is up 4.5 million since January 2008, but has been little changed in the past five months. This is the fine print of the jobs report—the headline job loss and unemployment statistics show that these 9.2 million people are employed and therefore not in the job loss category, but because of their job status these 9.2 million workers aren’t likely to be consuming at normal levels. more…