Rates hold after flat PPI, lower retail sales, better manufacturing.
PPI
Inflation (Wholesale) -PPI – Month/Month +0.8 % -PPI – Year/Year +7.0 % -PPI less food & energy – Month/Month +0.2 % -PPI less food & energy – Year/Year +2.5 % -This is inflation at the wholesale level. The numbers are high but businesses have been profitable and able to absorb the increases in the raw
Retail Sales (August) -Retail Sales – Month/Month unchanged -Retail Sales less autos – Month/Month change +0.1 % -This is not good. Only the consumer can get GDP going and the consumer is overleveraged, unemployed or concerned. Unless it causes consumer spending to increase, anything done in D.C. is for naught. Business Inflation (PPI) -PPI –
Face it: there is no quick fix for the problems in Europe, or in this country. The situation in Europe is worsening, and the fear that sovereign debt would spread has done just that: French, German, and Spanish banks are now viewed as vulnerable since they hold a good amount of poor European debt from
Wholesale Inflation -PPI Month/Month: +0.2% -PPI Year/Year: 7.2% -Core PPI Month/Month (less food & energy): +0.4% -Core PPI Year/Year (less food & energy):+2.5% -Core inflation is too high considering depressed economy. -Let’s not judge effect until we see CPI tomorrow. -Business has displayed a tendency to absorb wholesale costs and, with corporate profits so high,
June Producer Inflation -Overall PPI Month/Month: -0.4% -Core PPI Month/Month: +0.3% -Overall PPI Year/Year: +7% -Core PPI Year/Year: +2.4% -Lower energy costs this month. This is also a time to remind that ‘Overall’ is a better macroeconomic indicator because it smooths out the volatility of energy and food prices. June Retail Sales -Overall Retail Sales
Retail sales dropped 0.2% in May, the first drop in 11 months, but economists were expecting a 0.4% to 0.5% drop so stocks are rallying on the news plus some favorable earnings today (S&P 500 +16 to 1288). Meanwhile rates are up as mortgage bonds sell sharply (FNMA 4% coupon -62 basis points) on inflation
Retail sales dropped 0.2% in May, the first drop in 11 months, but economists were expecting a 0.4% to 0.5% drop so stocks are rallying on the news plus some favorable earnings today (S&P 500 +16 to 1288). Meanwhile rates are up as mortgage bonds sell sharply (FNMA 4% coupon -62 basis points) on inflation
Inflation: PPI core and overall Month/Month were +0.2% for May PPI core Year/Year was +2.1% PPI overall Year/Year was +7.0% – a reminder of how large the swings in food and energy have been. Retail Sales: Retail Sales (overall) Month/Month was -0.2% Retail Sales (less autos) Month/Month was +0.3% Today’s data is market neutral. The
Inflation: PPI core and overall Month/Month were +0.2% for May PPI core Year/Year was +2.1% PPI overall Year/Year was +7.0% – a reminder of how large the swings in food and energy have been. Retail Sales: Retail Sales (overall) Month/Month was -0.2% Retail Sales (less autos) Month/Month was +0.3% Today’s data is market neutral. The
The good news is that rates begin the May 16 trading week near 2011 lows. The bad news is that it’s because of a frail economy. Rates drop when bond prices rise, and mortgage bonds have rallied the last four weeks on lower home prices, weak GDP, and low core inflation. Bonds are topped out
The good news is that rates begin the May 16 trading week near 2011 lows. The bad news is that it’s because of a frail economy. Rates drop when bond prices rise, and mortgage bonds have rallied the last four weeks on lower home prices, weak GDP, and low core inflation. Bonds are topped out
The S&P 500 is down slightly, hovering around 1312, and bonds are also down slightly today after higher jobless claims, less-than-expected business inflation, and a favorable Treasury bond auction. All three factors would normally suggest a bond rally that would drive rates down, but after a strong two-day rally Tuesday and Wednesday, today’s jittery downside
Stocks and rates are down midway through trading day following lots of market data. February housing starts, which measure new homes construction, were down 22.5% since last month, the worst monthly drop in 27 years. The February Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures business inflation, was up 1.6% since last month and has spiked 5.6%
Rates are up today as inflation week rolls on. This morning’s reading of January producer prices shows a .8% increase since December and a 3.6% increase since January 2010. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the “core” readings showed a greater-than-expected .5% increase since December and a 1.6% increase since last year. The yearly
China’s NBS site delivering “Server Too Busy” errors right now. Reminiscent of early crisis days when S&P servers started crashing on Case Shiller Home price release days. Anyway, consumer prices came in at +4.9% versus expectations of +5.3% and last month’s year-over-reading of 4.6%. And producer prices came in at +6.6% versus expectations of 6.4%
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