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FHA Mortgage Insurance Increasing October 4
FHA mortgage insurance will be increasing as of October 4, 2010 because the FHA insurance pool only has $3.5 billion in cash and Treasury securities left in its “capital reserve account” The money sitting in the CRA represents a 71% decline in just the last three months. The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMIF) capital ratio has fallen below its statutorily mandated threshold. On the good news side of the ledger, from October through June the FHA had 19,310 fewer insurance claims on loans gone bad and paid $3.7 billion less than projected by the audit, perhaps due to solid foreclosure efforts although some feel that this is only because some states are experiencing a backlog in processing foreclosures.

Under HR 5981, FHA plans to adjust its annual mortgage insurance premium (effective with any new loans October 4) from .55% to 1.55%, yielding approximately $300 million per month in value to the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund at a time when its reserves are perilously low. To offset this, FHA will lower its upfront premium from 2.25% to 1.25%. This will be effective for 30yr fixed loans. As you can guess, mortgage insurance companies are pleased with this news, since annual FHA premiums will be closer to annual PMI premiums and that could encourage lenders and borrowers to turn to non-FHA products for more mortgages. Borrowers currently shopping for FHA loans should revisit their strategy with their lender given this new news. more…

Below is a chart from Mortgage Market Guide showing 4% coupon Fannie Mae 30 year mortgage backed securities trading for the last 6 months. Currently, this is the most common benchmark lenders use to price consumer mortgage rate sheets daily. When these bond prices rise, rates fall, and vice versa. Note the drop in prices leading up to the March 31 expiration of the Fed’s 15 month, $1.25 trillion mortgage bond buying program. The Fed was buying mortgage bonds to drive rates down and stop the great recession from becoming a depression. When this was coming to an end, you can see here MBS sold off and rates rose. But then the European debt crisis set in, inflation has been nonexistent, GDP is ok but shaky, and consumer sentiment and jobs also shaky (scroll to data section for current stats).

The result is mortgage bonds have risen to record levels, pushing 30yr fixed rates (on single family home loans up to $417k) down to new record lows: they were around 5% late-March and around 4.5% today. It’s unsustainable, but unquestionably favorable for those who qualify for home loans in this rigid underwriting environment.

Rate Snapshot
Rates have dropped steadily since May 6 and hit two new record lows in each of the last two weeks. Rates for Conforming loans up to $417k, Super Conforming loans $417k-729k by county, FHA loans, and jumbo loans above $729k are below. Here is a chart showing Conventional (non FHA) 30yr Fixed mortgage rates from 1971 to Present (FULL SIZE CHART). The all-time record low of 4.58% with .7% in points was set the week ending July 1. Here’s the fine print on rates used in the chart. The fine print on the rates in this WeeklyBasis report is at the bottom of the report.

Why Rates Are So Low
In an unprecedented rate stimulus exercise from January 1, 2009 through March 31, 2010, the Federal Reserve bought $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds. Rates are tied directly to mortgage bonds, so when those bond prices rise on buying rallies, yields (or rates) drop. Rates were already near all-time lows as of March 31 when the Fed ended its program. more…

Refi Rates Continue, But Who Qualifies?
The difference between 2-yr and 10-yr yields is the flattest since October, signifying the potential for deflation and evening the playing field between ARM and fixed-rate mortgages. This especially impacts folks looking to refinance. Interestingly, according to The Royal Bank of Scotland, about 37% of the mortgage market is “truly refinanceable” at current rates. If mortgage rates improve .25%, RBS calculate that around 51% of the market would enter this camp. But borrowers and properties still must qualify and deal with higher fees.

And will those borrowers looking to refinance, or obtain a loan on a purchase, be doing it in person or on line? Kate Berry with American Banker suggests that most bankers agree that online lending applications can attract customers and drive up volume, but few actually offer such services. At this point the majority of lenders either already offer or know that they have to offer some type of interactive, online mortgage application at some point in the future. But per a recent study, only 18% actually offer applications online now. Many offer only a basic form that borrowers must download and print, and then an employee must re-enter the data manually later. Of course, one problem is that liens and mortgages still must be “wet signed,” and few counties and municipalities will accept an electronic signature on a mortgage because they do not have the technology infrastructure. Loan officer should know that, per the article, “online application volume is expected to triple by 2013 with volume growing from just 4% this year, to 13% of total volume”. Lenders still expect loan officers to be the dominant channel, accepting 57% of all mortgage applications by 2013, down from 67% this year. And employees who work at bank branches are expected to originate roughly 13% of mortgage applications by 2013, the same as this year. Four of the top 10 residential lenders dominate online originations: Quicken, JPMorgan Chase, PHH, and SunTrust. more…

Securities and Mortgage Associations Weigh In On Reform
The Security Industry and Financial Markets Association published a comprehensive guide to the Financial Reform Bill. It appears that, in the mortgage section, most of the details are left to either regulators or investors. The Mortgage Bankers Association also weighed in.

Mortgage Provisions of Reform Bill
The bill requires lenders to have “skin in the game” on riskier types of loans-such as option ARMs or loans that don’t require full documentation of income-that are bundled and sold to investors as securities. Don’t look for these loans to come back, unless the investor wants to keep 5% of the loan amounts around as capital. The bill sets stricter limits on prepayment penalties. The legislation also forces lenders to ensure that borrowers have the ability to repay loans and gives borrowers greater scope to seek damages or contest a foreclosure if they are given a loan that they can’t afford. Provisions that require stricter checks on a borrowers’ ability to pay could make it harder or more expensive for self-employed borrowers or those who rely on commission or seasonal income to qualify for loans. more…

How Many Can Refi vs. How Many Qualify
There was a story in the Wall Street Journal wondering “But if rates are so low, why isn’t demand for new loans picking up? For one, most borrowers who could refinance probably did so last year, when rates fell below 5% in March, August, and December. Many borrowers with an incentive to refinance can’t qualify with today’s tougher lending standards or don’t think it’s worth paying the closing costs on a new loan. Credit Suisse estimates that around 61% of all borrowers with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage could lower their mortgage rate by 0.75 percentage point at current rates. But analysts estimate that only 38% of those borrowers could actually qualify at current standards. More borrowers can’t qualify because they don’t have enough equity in their homes, their credit scores have taken a hit, or they’ve seen their income reduced.”

Covered Bonds Rejected By Reform
It is one thing to pass financial reform, and other to actually implement and enforce financial reform. That may be what faces the mortgage industry after the Dodd-Frank (nicknamed “Frank ‘n Dodd”) reform bill passes. Votes on flood insurance and the extension of loans funding under the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit are due this week. Due to opposition from the Treasury Department, an amendment that would allow covered bonds to get a start in the U.S. mortgage market was blocked (wait a second, didn’t previous Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson advocate for covered bonds during the crisis?). Federal regulators will oversee appraisal management companies that are affiliated with federally insured banks under the Dodd-Frank regulatory reform bill. more…

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). This is the official record on mortgage rates and source material for the overwhelming majority of rate reports in the media—reports that very often exclude critical details rate shoppers need to know. Since the one-day market crash May 6, mortgage bonds have rallied to insane levels and mortgage rates have dropped to new record lows several times. So news stories about record low rates hit at the end of each week, but they are for rates that were available the previous week. And only if you have a single family home, and a loan of $417,000 or less, and lots more fine print. Below is a checklist of characteristics used in the Freddie Mac PMMS survey, so you know if these rates apply to you or not.

PMMS rates reported in the press each Thursday are for the week leading up to (and not including) Thursday. Mortgage rates are tied to mortgage bond trading, and as such, rates change all day everyday. The Thursday PMMS report on rates is for rates that are long expired, so it’s critical to get market-relevant quotes from a mortgage lender, not a news source. Also below are some other useful links for understanding rate quotes and rate locks. more…

Rate shoppers and watchers should note that the lowest rates on official record are here now. The chart below shows rates from June 2010 back to April 1971, when Freddie Mac started officially tracking 30 year mortgage rates. The high was in October 1981, when then Fed chairman Paul Volcker was hiking rates to battle inflation (more on this below). At that time, borrowers paid an average of 2.3 points to buy a rate down to 18.45%. The low was May 27, 2010 when borrowers averaged 0.7 points to buy a rate down to 4.78%—note that 4.78% with 0.7 points was also achieved three times in 2009: April 2, April 30, and November 25. These are national average rates on loans up to $417,000 for single family homes with 20% or more equity in the property. Rates change daily as mortgage bonds trade.

FULL SIZE CHART

Fed’s Consumer Credit Card Search Site
Looking for a credit card? Knock yourself out on this Federal Reserve website. In an intersting move by the Federal Reserve, they have placed 300 credit card compnay agreements (mostly companies with 10,000 or more open credit card accounts) online in a searchable database for public viewing. Can something for mortgages be far behind?

Rates Low But Refis Still Tough
Rates certainly continue to surprise folks who expected higher rates by this time in 2010. The 10-yr neared 3.10%, closed at the lowest yield in over a year and some were beginning to yap about the 10-yr down into the 2%’s. We have a different story today, as hedging mortgage pipelines continues to be difficult, as the 10-yr yield has shot back up into the 3.20%’s. Overall the news yesterday helped bonds: continued European fears, the Euro hitting an 8-year low versus the yen, Korean fears, the Case-Shiller index lower, Consumer Confidence slightly higher. We also had a $42 billion 2-yr auction, which is now under water. At one point the DOW was down over 300 points and the 10-yr was up a point. Mortgage prices did well, relative to Treasury prices, as servicers apparently have been buying pools. Large servicers and investors are, of course, worried about prepayment risk of recently originated loans. more…

Zero-point rates on 30yr fixed Conforming loans (up to $729k) ended last week at their lowest levels since official records began in 1971, and Jumbo 30yr fixed loans (above $729k) touched the low-5% range. By the time last week’s rate levels are officially announced by Freddie Mac on May 27, rates are likely to be higher. Below is a recap of how rates got here and rationale for why rates may rise next week.

Why Rates & Stocks Have Dropped
The Dow dropped 1000 points before closing down 348 points on May 6. The press has dubbed it a “Flash Crash,” but let’s go beyond the clever label to understand what happened that day, why the Dow is down 675 points since that day, and why mortgage rates are down .25% since then. more…